MARKET WATCH 11TH OCT 2012 - AsianBookie.Com Forums

11-Oct 2012 Thursday 9:08 AM (4216 days ago)

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STI        3,033      -32     -1.05%
DOW      13,345    -129    -0.95%
S&P        1,433      -8       -0.59%
FTSE      5,777       -33     -0.57%
DAX        7,205       -30      -0.41%
GOLD       1,761       -4       -0.23%
OIL          91.22        -0.03   -0.03%
PRE-HK OPEN   -114pts

11 Oct 2012 08:26

DJ MARKET TALK: Singapore STI May Fall More, Test 3000 Support -SIAS

0025 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore's STI could be in for another tough day after disappointing U.S. corporate earnings, potentially extending its hefty 1.0% drop to 3033.81 Wednesday. "After a good showing in August and September, investors are now looking for excuses to exit the market," says SIAS Research CEO Roger Tan. "Alcoa and Chevron's tepid outlook shouldn't come as a surprise, but people had conveniently forgot about the weak global outlook" in past months. He tips "continued consolidation" on the STI, which means it would test the 3000 psychological support Thursday. But Tan also reckons that the 3000 level marks a good entry point for investors looking for long-term gains. Fraser & Neave (F99.SG) should draw attention after its board agreed with its bankers that a US$7.2 billion takeover offer from Thai billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi wasn't "compelling" and undervalued the company. Overseas Union Enterprise (LJ3.SG) meanwhile confirms it had been behind a failed S$1.4 billion bid to buy F&N's hospitality business.

11 Oct 2012 08:42

DJ MARKET TALK:FN Likely VolatileThai Bid Not Compelling-Board

0041 GMT [Dow Jones] Fraser & Neave (F99.SG) shares may become hot potatoes today after the conglomerate's board and financial adviser, JPMorgan, says that a S$8.88/share takeover bid from a Thai tycoon wasn't "compelling" and undervalued F&N's property business. "I think the advisers and the board gave the right advice, and most investors seem to feel the same way," says Roger Tan, CEO of SIAS Research. Although F&N's independent directors didn't issue a definitive recommendation to shareholders, their comments mean that "the Thais may have to reevaluate their bid and make it higher," Tan says, adding that it is also possible that the Thai billionaire, Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, could walk away from the deal if he finds the top end of JPMorgan's valuation, at S$11.22 per F&N share, too expensive. "There's a lot of guessing at the moment, and the share price is going to be very volatile," he adds. F&N closed Wednesday 0.6% higher at S$8.93.

11 Oct 2012 07:01

DJ Fraser & Neave Said Wednesday it Won't Respond to Offer for Its Hospitality Business

..

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11-Oct 2012 Thursday 9:16 AM (4216 days ago)

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SINGAPORE EQUITY

Investment Research

ers Research Corporate News Flash Private Circulation Only

& MARINE

roup.com

STX OSV HOLDINGS BUY 

Price S$1.57

Previous S$2.20

Target S$2.20

Orders for two OSCVs from Siem Offshore

Value of contracts estimated at NOK1.3b. Siem Offshore has exercised its options with STX OSV for

the design and construction of two offshore subsea construction vessels (OSCVs). The vessels will

be based on STX OSV’s OSCV

11 design. The value of the contracts was not disclosed. DOF awarded STX OSV a contract for one

OSCV 11 vessel for ~NOK650m in Mar 2012. Assuming similar order value per vessel, we estimate the

two new orders from Siem Offshore to be valued at NOK1.3b (US$227m). We estimate that the new

orders lifted STX OSV’s YTD order win to NOK9.6b, 80% of our full-year forecast of NOk12b, and

unbilled order book to NOK20.5b. We maintain FY12-14F EPS estimates, Buy rating and TP at S$2.02.

Our TP is pegged to 12x FY12F P/E. We like STX OSV for its strong execution, growing order book

visibility and positive order outlook.

Strong demand for OSVCs. The new vessels are scheduled to be delivered in

2Q 2014 from STX OSV Brattvaag in Norway. The hulls will be constructed at STX OSV Tulcea in

Romania. Siem Offshore is a repeat customer. Apart from the new orders, STX OSV is currently

building two OSCVs in Norway and two platform supply vessels (PSVs) in Brazil for Siem Offshore.

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11-Oct 2012 Thursday 9:18 AM (4216 days ago)

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F & N

S$8.93-FRNM.SI

 Two key points from the much anticipated Offeree

Circular dispatched yesterday:

a. Independent financial advisors, JP Morgan concluded TCC Assets’ $8.88 offer is fair but not

compelling, being at the low end of the range of sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation of

$8.30 to $11.22 per share.

b. Chairman Lee Hsien Yang and other directors holding F&N shares will not accept TCC’s offer

unless it comes unconditional (ie >50% vs

33.5% currently). LHY owns 180,000 shares directly, and 408,240 shares as one of trustees of his

late maternal grand father. (3 other directors own an aggregate 87,594 shares.)

 Comments:

i. A wide range of SOP valuations, standard work of investment bankers and broking houses, is not

uncommon, given F&N’s diversity of interests,

and hence a whole host of assumptions. (While properties are hard assets, and hence less arbitrary,

F&B assets are not as easy to value.)

ii. Bottomline is, the market is the final arbiter, so let a competing offer emerge (like in

Asia Pacific Breweries, from $45 to $53 ), and which will obviously take into account Charoen

Sirivadhanabhakdi ’s >33% stake and Kirin’s

$14.7% bloc.

 OUE has confirmed it had made an unsolicited $1.4 bln offer for F&N’s hospitality / Serviced

Residence business.

 TCC’s offer closes on Monday Oct 29, unless extended, or revised.

 The highest F&N share price hit was $9.01 on Sept 18, when Thai Bev and Heineken reached a

truce re- AP Brew.

This message was edited by stand up n wake up on 11-Oct-2012 @ 9:20 AM

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11-Oct 2012 Thursday 9:20 AM (4216 days ago)

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WORLD PRECISION

S$0.385-WPRE.SI

 Pursuant to a share buyback program, World Sharehold Ltd (owned 82% by Chairman Wang WY and 18%

by CEO Shao JJ) is buying back 18% of Shao JJ’s shares and in consideration is distributing

53,100,000 World Precision (WP) shares

(representing 13.28% of WP) to him.

 As a result of the above, Shao JJ’s direct holding in the company will increase from 1mln to

54.1mln shares (13.53%) while World Sharehold Ltd’s stake will be

reduced from 309.897mln to 256.797mln shares

(64.2%).

 We believe the above is done for both Shao JJ and Wang WY to have better control over their

personal shareholdings in WP.

 With no impact expected on the share price, we maintain our HOLD recommendation.

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11-Oct 2012 Thursday 9:37 AM (4216 days ago)

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Regional Morning Notes

Thursday, October 11, 2012

REGIONAL Sector

Plantation Page 2

Production and inventory levels are at a record high. Governments are stepping up efforts to cut inventories to support prices.

HONG KONG Update

Dah Sing Banking Group (2356 HK/BUY/HK$7.48/Target: HK$9.10) Page 5

Key takeaways from company visit.

TPV (903 HK/SELL/HK$1.77/Target: HK$1.49) Page 8

Losing clarity again. Downgrade to SELL.

MALAYSIA Update

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK/BUY/RM3.62/Target: RM4.05) Page 11

Building up a future.

SINGAPORE

Key Indices

Prev Close 1D % 1W % 1M % YTD %

DJIA 13345.0 (1.0) (1.1) 0.7 9.2

S&P 500 1432.6 (0.6) (1.3) 0.2 13.9

FTSE 100 5776.7 (0.6) (0.8) (0.3) 3.7

AS30 4511.9 (0.3) 1.2 3.8 9.8

CSI 300 2324.1 0.2 6.4 0.5 (0.9) FSSTI 3033.8 (1.0) (1.4) 0.6 14.6

HSCEI 10041.1 0.7 2.2 7.1 1.1

HSI 20919.6 (0.1) 0.1 5.3 13.5

JCI 4280.0 (0.0) 0.7 3.0 12.0

KLCI 1659.4 (0.2) 0.6 2.8 8.4

KOSPI 1948.2 (1.6) (2.4) 1.5 6.7

Nikkei 225 8596.2 (2.0) (2.2) (2.4) 1.7

SET 1289.4 (0.2) (1.4) 3.3 25.8

TWSE 7592.0 (0.3) (1.6) 1.5 7.4

BDI 875 0.0 9.6 31.4 (49.7) CPO (RM/mt) 2229 1.3 2.7 (19.9) (29.5) Nymex Crude

(US$/bbl) 91 0.1 (0.4) (6.0) (7.6)

Source: Bloomberg

Top BUYs/SELLs

Current Target Pot Company Ticker Price Price +/- (lcy) (lcy) (%)

Update

DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP/BUY/S$14.11/Target: S$19.45) Page 14

3Q12 results preview: Moving sideways because of slower economy.

THAILAND Strategy

Democrats vs Republicans Page 17

Potential stock beneficiaries in the US presidential election.

Update

MCOT (MCOT TB/HOLD/Bt33.50/Target: Bt36.00) Page 19

3Q12 results may improve slightly from last quarter. Aiming to be a leading operator under digital TV platform.

Top BUYs

China Mobile 941 HK 84.70 100.00 18.1

Kunlun Energy 135 HK 13.72 16.80 22.4

Sinopharm 1099 HK 26.55 28.20 6.2

Multi-Purpose Hldgs MPU MK 3.60 4.20 16.7

DBS	DBS SP	14.11	19.50	38.2
Krung Thai Bank	KTB TB	18.30	21.75	18.9
PTT	PTT TB	314.00	405.00	29.0
Top SELLs
China Merchants Hldgs 144 HK		23.55	19.60	(16.8)
Tiger Airways TGR SP		0.75	0.51	(32.0)

		2011	2012F	2013F
GDP (% yoy) US		1.7	1.5	2.0
Euro Zone		1.5	(0.4)	0.6
Japan		(0.9)	2.0	2.5
Singapore		4.9	2.0	3.0
Malaysia		5.1	5.0	5.0
Thailand		0.1	5.0	4.0
Indonesia		6.5	6.0	6.5
Hong Kong		5.0	3.5	4.5
China		9.2	8.0	8.3
		2011	2012F	2013F
WTI	(US$/bbl)	97.5	102	111
Aluminium	(US$/mt)	2,420	1,993	1,963
Copper	(US$/mt)	8,851	7,865	8,225
Gold Price Lon	on (US$/ounce)	1,568	1,645	1,775
Iron Ore	(USc/dmtu)	168	126	128
CPO	(US$/mt)	1,025	1,030	1,110
BDI		1,548	1,700	1,800

Key Assumptions

Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

Corporate Events

Venue Beg Close

Asia Consumer Corporate Day Singapore 10 Oct 11 Oct

Indonesia and Thailand Property Singapore 12 Oct 12 Oct

Analyst Presentation

Greater China Energy Sector Kuala Lumpur 15 Oct 16 Oct

Analyst Presentation Brunei 17 Oct 17 Oct

Luk Fook Holdings International Singapore 16 Oct 17 Oct

Corporate Roadshow

Singapore Oil Service Sector Hong Kong 16 Oct 17 Oct

Analyst Presentation

BW Plantation Toronto 22 Oct 23 Oct

Corporate Roadshow

Hong Leong Industries Kuala Lumpur 25 Oct 25 Oct

Corporate Presentation

Please see important notice on last page Page 1 of 22

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11-Oct 2012 Thursday 9:45 AM (4216 days ago)

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Plantation – Regional

Sep 12: Record-High Production And Inventory

the duty-free quota and rollout of biodiesel use. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.	SIME MK	BUY	11.25	9.72
	BAL SP	BUY	1.28	1.03
• Record-high inventory level but still below our expectation.	LSIP IJ	BUY	3,200	2,300
Malaysia’s Sep 12 palm oil inventory increased to 2.48m tonnes (+17%	FR SP	BUY	2.30	1.92
mom, +16% yoy). This was mainly due to higher-than-expected crude	SGRO	BUY	3,800	2,450

Palm oil production and inventory were at a record high in Sep 12. Exports were up as well but at a slower pace compared with production. Inventory is at a record high of 2.48m tonnes, mainly due to slower take-up for CPO. The Malaysian government is in serious discussions to take steps to reduce palm oil inventory potentially via a change in export tax rate, better distribution of

Regional Morning Notes

Thursday, October 11, 2012

OVERWEIGHT

(Maintained)

Sector Update

Company	Rec	Target	Share
		Price	Price
		(lcl crcy)	(lcl crcy)

Top Sector Picks

What’s New

palm oil (CPO) production of 2m tonnes (+20% mom, +7% yoy) on the back of a pick-up in harvesting activities after the Raya holidays and high crop season.

Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

Summary Of Sep 12 MPOB Data

(m tonne) Jul 12 Aug 12 Sept 12

• Strong exports to continue. In Sep 12, exports went up 4.5% mom (-2.6% yoy) to 1.51m tonnes. This is above our expectation. Demand is likely to increase further in October as a sharp drop in CPO prices is likely to revive demand. China and India, which are the two main importers, will take this opportunity to lock in at current low spot CPO prices (trading at a discount of RM150-180/tonne to 3-month future).

• Governments finally realise need to cooperate and improve pricing power. The Malaysian and Indonesian governments are in talks to form a joint body that will seek to support prices by reducing stocks through increasing domestic use and controlling supplies of edible oil. The cooperation would be similar to those already in place for the region's rubber industry, ie International Tripartite Rubber Corporation (ITRC) and the International Rubber Consortium (IRCo), which include top producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia which meet regularly to discuss how to help the industry.

Action

• Maintain OVERWEIGHT. There could be a CPO price rebound towards end-12 as production enters the low season and exports start to be

CPO Production Palm Oil Stocks Palm Oil Exports CPO Price (RM/tonne)

Source: MPOB

Analysts

1.69 1.66 2.00

2.00 2.11 2.48

1.29 1.44 1.51

1.69 1.66 2.00

drawn down from inventory. Stock picks: Prefer high-production growth

companies to mitigate price volatility. We like First Resources (FR SP) and Bumitama (BAL SP). Golden Agri could benefit from the CPO price rebound as it has the highest correlation with CPO price.

Peer Comparison

Regional Research Team

+65 6535 6868 [email protected]

Company	Ticker	Rec	Price 10 Oct 12	Target Price	Market Cap	------------PE (x)-------------			ROE	P/B	Div	Div Yield
			(RM)	(RM)	(US$m)	2011	2012F	2013F	(%)	(x)	(sen)	(%)
Sime Darby	SIME MK	BUY	9.72	11.25	19,004	13.9	12.3	12.6	16.6	2.2	39.5	4.1
Tradewinds Plant	TWPB MK	BUY	3.96	5.45	682	7.9	12.2	8.0	20.0	1.2	9.7	2.4
IJM Plantations	IJMP MK	HOLD	3.21	3.40	837	16.2	13.3	12.3	11.7	1.9	13.1	4.1
IOI Corporation	IOI MK	HOLD	5.08	4.70	10,625	19.0	16.1	14.6	14.5	2.5	17.5	3.4
KL Kepong	KLK MK	HOLD	21.36	21.65	7,418	19.7	14.8	14.7	17.2	2.9	72.2	3.4
Genting Plantations	GENP MK	SELL	8.94	8.80	2,207	15.3	15.7	13.2	14.5	2.1	17.1	1.9
Felda Global	FGVH MK	NR	4.76	NA	5,649	20.1	17.6	15.8	12.6	2.9	13.0	2.7
			(S$)	(S$)
Bumitama Agri	BAL SP	BUY	1.03	1.28	1,465	22.5	15.9	12.5	32.5	5.2	0.0	0.0
First Resources	FR SP	BUY	1.92	2.30	2,467	14.7	13.1	11.8	24.6	2.6	4.7	2.5
Golden Agri-Res	GGR SP	BUY	0.64	0.90	6,630	11.0	10.6	9.4	17.1	0.8	0.6	0.9
Indofood Agri	IFAR SP	BUY	1.27	1.90	1,484	10.6	9.8	7.7	12.5	1.1	2.6	2.0
Mewah	MII SP	HOLD	0.44	0.46	533	13.2	13.6	9.6	8.1	1.0	0.8	1.8
Kencana Agri	KAGR SP	SELL	0.33	0.37	303	49.1	13.4	9.8	10.6	1.3	0.2	0.8
Wilmar Int'l	WIL SP	SELL	3.07	3.30	15,966	10.0	13.0	11.0	12.7	1.2	5.6	1.8
			(Rp)	(Rp)
London Sumatra	LSIP IJ	BUY	2,300	3,200	1,636	9.2	10.1	8.6	32.7	2.7	99.8	4.3
Sampoerna Agro	SGRO IJ	BUY	2,450	3,800	483	8.6	9.4	7.1	23.5	1.9	52.1	2.1
Astra Agro Lestari	AALI IJ	BUY	20,750	24,800	3,407	13.6	13.7	10.9	31.3	4.0	753.5	3.6
BW Plantation	BWPT IJ	BUY	1,460	1,800	615	18.4	15.3	10.6	25.1	4.1	11.9	0.8
Bakrie Sumatera	UNSP IJ	HOLD	120	350	172	4.4	3.6	3.0	4.4	0.2	5.0	4.2

Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

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11-Oct 2012 Thursday 10:18 AM (4216 days ago)

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11-Oct 2012 Thursday 10:20 AM (4216 days ago)

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(BN) U.S. Stocks Fall as Alcoa Slumps Amid Corporate Earnings Concern

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

U.S. Stocks Fall as Alcoa Slumps Amid Corporate Earnings Concern
2012-10-10 20:41:46.432 GMT

By Inyoung Hwang
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending the
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the lowest level in a month, as
Alcoa Inc.’s forecast fueled concern over corporate earnings and
global economic growth.
Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, lost 4.6 percent
after cutting its outlook for global demand for the metal.
Chevron Corp. slid 4.2 percent after saying third-quarter
earnings were “substantially” lower than the previous period.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. paced gains with consumer stocks, rising to
a record price after saying it had a “very strong” back-to-
school season and will add U.S. stores. Yum! Brands Inc. rallied
8 percent after profit beat analyst estimates.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.6 percent to 1,432.56 in New York.
The benchmark gauge fell 1 percent yesterday, and is down 2
percent over four days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
128.56 points, or 1 percent, to 13,344.97. More than 5.9 billion
shares changed on U.S. exchanges today, about 1.5 percent below
the three-month average.
“The fear is that this is going to be a really bad
earnings season,” Hank Smith, chief investment officer at
Haverford Trust Co. in Radnor, Pennsylvania, said in a telephone
interview. His firm oversees $6.5 billion in assets. “If S&P
500 earnings come in better than expectations, the markets are
going to view that positively. We’re off to a good start but
we’ve got a long way to go.”

Earnings Season

Alcoa unofficially marked the start of a third-quarter
earnings season that is forecast to show S&P 500 profits and
sales fell in unison for the first time in three years,
according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Per-
share earnings in the S&P 500 are projected to have dropped 1.7
percent after they were little changed in the second quarter.
Sales may have slipped 0.6 percent, the data show.
Global equities slumped as China car sales unexpectedly
shrank for the first time in eight months. French President
Francois Hollande and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy
called on nations such as Germany to honor commitments on a
banking union made at the European Council in June. The
International Monetary Fund said European banks may need to
shrink assets if policy makers fall short of pledges to stem the
fiscal crisis.

Global Growth

The S&P 500 briefly pared losses after the Federal Reserve
said in its Beige Book business survey that the U.S. economy
expanded “modestly” last month. The benchmark equity measure
has retreated for the past four days as the IMF reduced
estimates for global economic growth. The index has still
rallied 12 percent from this year’s low on June 1 as the Fed
unveiled a third round of bond purchases.
Alcoa lost 4.6 percent to $8.71. The first member of the
Dow average to report results trimmed its forecast for growth in
aluminum consumption this year to 6 percent from 7 percent amid
slowing demand from China. The company posted third-quarter
earnings and sales yesterday that exceeded analysts’
projections.
Investors sold shares of companies most tied to economic
growth. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, a gauge of 30 U.S.
stocks, lost 0.8 percent to decline for the third straight day.
Nine out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 fell, as energy companies
slumped 1.8 percent for the biggest decline. Tesoro Corp. erased
5.6 percent to $38.70. Material stocks retreated 1 percent for
the second-largest drop.

Chevron Slides

Chevron slipped 4.2 percent to $112.45 after the company
said earnings dropped in the third quarter from the previous
period amid lower oil output because of Hurricane Isaac, falling
crude prices and weaker U.S. refining returns. Oil and natural
gas output declined 4 percent to the equivalent of 2.518 million
barrels a day in June and July from 2.624 million for the entire
second quarter. Chevron also said a shuttered crude-processing
unit at a California refinery won’t resume operations before the
end of the year.
H&R Block Inc. retreated 5.4 percent to $16.67. The largest
U.S. tax preparer hired Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to advise on
alternatives for its bank. The Kansas City, Missouri-based
company is considering dropping its designation as a savings and
loan holding company after the Fed proposed rules requiring such
firms to keep additional capital.

Monster Beverage

Monster Beverage Corp. erased 5.5 percent to $53.63. The
largest U.S. energy drink maker by sales volume was cut to hold
from buy by Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst Mark Astrachan, who
cited greater-than-anticipated deceleration in revenue growth
through the first quarter.
Cummins Inc. slid 3.4 percent to $87.79. The maker of
engines said it expects to cut as many as 1,500 jobs by the end
of 2012 and lowered its forecasts for revenue and profit.
Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest construction and mining
equipment maker, fell 1.9 percent to $83.16.
MetroPCS Communications Inc. sank 3.8 percent to $12.04.
Sprint Nextel Corp. is holding off on an immediate counterbid
for MetroPCS to gain time to scrutinize the carrier’s planned
combination with T-Mobile USA Inc., said people familiar with
the situation.
Wal-Mart rose 1.7 percent, the most in the Dow, to a record
$75.42 after the world’s largest retailer said in an investor
community meeting it had a “very strong” back-to-school season
that will continue into the holiday period. The company also
said it will add 205 U.S. locations in 2013 and 240 in 2014.
McDonald’s Corp., the biggest restaurant chain, gained 0.3
percent to $92.40.

Costco Gains

Costco Wholesale Corp. added 1.9 percent to $101.56. The
largest U.S. warehouse-club chain posted fiscal fourth-quarter
profit that topped analysts’ estimates as low prices drove
sales. Earnings in the quarter ended Aug. 31 were $1.39 a share.
Analysts projected $1.31, the average of 25 estimates compiled
by Bloomberg.
Third-quarter earnings at the eight food and consumer-
staples retailers in the S&P 500 increased 8 percent, according
to analysts’estimates.
“One should look toward consumer companies as a beacon of
light for improved earnings in this quarter, but the overall
theme that will be echoed from management will be of a more
conservative nature,” Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New
Jersey-based fund manager at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which
oversees about $138 billion in client assets, said by phone.
“It’s going to be a deceleration from previous quarters.”
Yum jumped 8 percent to $70.99. The owner of the Taco Bell
and KFC fast-food chains reported a 23 percent increase in
third-quarter net income as sales climbed in the U.S. and China.
Profit excluding some items was 99 cents a share, compared with
the 97 cent average of 22 analyst estimates compiled by
Bloomberg.

Apple Rebounds

Apple Inc., the world’s most valuable company, climbed 0.8
percent to $640.91 after four straight losses that extended the
iPad maker’s retreat from a record high on Sept. 19. to 9.4
percent.
FedEx Corp. rose 5.2 percent to $89.99 after setting a goal
to boost profit by $1.7 billion within three years, primarily by
cutting costs, as customers shift to slower and cheaper
deliveries from overnight shipments.
True Religion Apparel Inc. surged 22 percent to $25.71. The
maker of the namesake designer jeans said it will explore
strategic alternatives, including a possible sale. The board has
formed a special committee to consider options after receiving
interest from third parties about a possible transaction,
Vernon, California-based True Religion said today in a
statement.

For Related News and Information:
Developed Markets View: DMMV <GO>
World stock indexes: WEI <GO>
Most-active U.S. stocks: MOST US <GO>
U.S. stock market map: IMAP US <GO>
Top stories on stocks: TOP STK <GO>
Stories on U.S. stocks: NI USS <GO>

--With assistance from Sarah Jones in London. Editors: Jeff
Sutherland, Michael P. Regan

To contact the reporter on this story:
Inyoung Hwang in New York at +1-212-617-6289 or
[email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Lynn Thomasson at +1-212-617-0506 or
[email protected]

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Today’s Focus

Nam Cheong - Expect robust earnings momentum; maintain BUY with higher TP of S$0.30
Dah

Today’s Focus

• Nam Cheong - Expect robust earnings momentum;

maintain BUY with higher TP of S$0.30

A soft start to the 3Q earnings season dragged US indices lower. Concerns about how the 3Q

earnings season may turn out has prompted profit taking after the stock market’s recent run. Dow

component Alcoa reported better-than-expected results but cut its growth outlook while Chevron

warned

about its 3Q earnings. Discount retailer Wal-mart rose following comments about a strong

‘back-to-school’ season. Meanwhile, Spain’s debt rating is downgraded 2 notches to BBB- by S&P.

For STI, a softer start to the trading session is seen but down- side should be limited with a

bounce off around the 3020 immediate support expected. Still, the STI’s unsustainable rise above

3100 last Friday is a noteworthy. Concerns about a lack lustre 3Q results season, slowing economy,

the upcoming November US election and year-end ‘fiscal cliff’ should see the STI contained below

3088 in coming weeks as the year-end holiday lull draws closer. The immediate resistance at the

down-side gap of 3045-65 caps near-term bounce.

Nam Cheong has secured vessel sale contracts for two Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs) worth a total

of US$52.1m from two new West African customers. The group is on track to realising its

built-to-stock programmes for FY12/13. We expect stronger earnings in 2H12-FY14. Maintain BUY with

higher TP of S$0.30 (Prev S$ 0.24) as we roll over our valuation to reflect FY13F earnings and

based on a higher target PE multiple of 9x (from 8x previously).

Malaysia’s Sep12 palm oil output jumped 20% m-o-m to

2.004m MT, exceeding our expectations by 8%. Against the higher production, the pace of Sep12

exports had decelerated to 4% m-o-m from 11% in Aug12. Reflecting this, end-Sep12 palm oil

inventory leaped 17% m-o-m to 2.481m MT (mostly CPO) vs. expectation of 2.206m MT. At current

level, we suspect CPO storage are close to tanks capacity. This could lead to: (1) CPO exports need

to be jolted at fire sale prices; and (2) planters need to cut down on harvesting to prevent

wastage and to conserve cash ahead of imminent drop in CPO

prices. We believe these actions should temporarily address

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11-Oct 2012 Thursday 11:49 AM (4216 days ago)

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Company D.O.T.

Buy/Sell No.of shares

S$/shr

CDW Holdings 10-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 200,000 0.0950

Freight Links Express Holdings 10-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 500,000 0.0670

Overseas-Chinese Banking Corp 10-Oct-12 Share

Buy-Back 50,000 9.3600

Pan-United Corporation Ltd 10-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 100,000 0.6750

Ryobi Kiso Holdings Ltd 10-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 642,000 0.1250

Viking Offshore and Marine Ltd 10-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 48,000 0.1140

Freight Links Express Holdings 09-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 500,000 0.0670

GKE International Limited 09-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 702,000 0.1579

Global Testing Corporation Ltd 09-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 210,000 0.0650

KSH Holdings Limited 09-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 300,000 0.3276

Macquarie Int'l Infra Fund Ltd 09-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 250,000 0.5400

Overseas-Chinese Banking Corp 09-Oct-12 Share

Buy-Back 100,000 9.4700

Pan-United Corporation Ltd 09-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 50,000 0.6800

Ryobi Kiso Holdings Ltd 09-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 490,000 0.1232

Straco Corporation Limited 09-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 120,000 0.2604

Viking Offshore and Marine Ltd 09-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 245,000 0.1140

AEM Holdings Ltd 08-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 750,000 0.0820

CDW Holdings 08-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 250,000 0.0940

Global Testing Corporation Ltd 08-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 422,000 0.0650

Macquarie Int'l Infra Fund Ltd 08-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 1,000,000 0.5365

Osim International Ltd 08-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 25,000 1.4350

Overseas-Chinese Banking Corp 08-Oct-12 Share

Buy-Back 100,000 9.4400

Ryobi Kiso Holdings Ltd 08-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 470,000 0.1234

Saizen Real Estate Inv Trust 08-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 900,000 0.1660

Viking Offshore and Marine Ltd 08-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 150,000 0.1140

CDW Holdings 05-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 400,000 0.0950

Macquarie Int'l Infra Fund Ltd 05-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 2,100,000 0.5350

Osim International Ltd 05-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 335,000 1.4500

Overseas-Chinese Banking Corp 05-Oct-12 Share

Buy-Back 100,000 9.4800

Viking Offshore and Marine Ltd 05-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 25,000 0.1130

CDW Holdings 04-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 100,000 0.0940

Freight Links Express Holdings 04-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 225,000 0.0670

Global Testing Corporation Ltd 04-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 80,000 0.0660

HG Metal Manufacturing Ltd 04-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 1,944,000 0.0810

Macquarie Int'l Infra Fund Ltd 04-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 230,000 0.5311

Osim International Ltd 04-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 217,000 1.4290

Overseas-Chinese Banking Corp 04-Oct-12 Share

Buy-Back 100,000 9.4400

Pan-United Corporation Ltd 04-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 50,000 0.6700

Straco Corporation Limited 04-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 170,000 0.2550

Global Testing Corporation Ltd 03-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 439,000 0.6560

Boustead Singapore 03-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 3,964,000 0.9500

Overseas-Chinese Banking Corp 03-Oct-12 Share

Buy-Back 100,000 9.4200

Saizen Real Estate Inv Trust 03-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 330,000 0.1648

KSH Holdings Limited 03-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 30,000 0.3375

HG Metal Manufacturing Ltd 03-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 1,047,000 0.0810

Macquarie Int'l Infra Fund Ltd 03-Oct-12

Share Buy-Back 950,000 0.5308

Source: SGX Masnet

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11-Oct 2012 Thursday 11:50 AM (4216 days ago)

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Wired Daily

St o c k

Tran s ac t ed

Dat e Subst ant ial Sh areh o lder/ Direc t or

B u y / Sell

/ Conv

No o f Sh ares ( ' 00 0)

Pric e Per

Sh are $

%Is su ed Cap Bef o re Ch ange

%Is su ed Cap A f t er Ch an g e

Aussino Group 27-Sep-12 Anthony Lim

* Sell 32400 0.14 49.98

39.29

Aussino Group 27-Sep-12 Samcorp Capital

Sell 32400 0.14 49.81

39.12

J iutian Chemical 27-Sep-12 Any ang Longy u (HK) Dev

* Buy 200 - 28.55 28.56

Serial Sy stem 27-Sep-12 Goh Bak Heng

Buy 225 0.1 35.59

35.62

BRC Asia 26-Sep-12 Lingco Holdings

Buy 1336 0.14 5.76

5.91

BRC Asia 26-Sep-12 Sia Ling Sing

* Buy 1336 0.14 27.85

BRC Asia 26-Sep-12 Lingco Marine

* Buy 1336 0.14 5.76

5.91

CWT Ltd 26-Sep-12 Loi Pok Yen

Buy 900 1.25 2.35

2.5

Elec & Eltek 26-Sep-12 Chan Wing Kwan

* Buy 2 17.92 0.67

0.67

TA Corp 26-Sep-12 Koh Wee Sing

Buy 2824 0.32 4.95

5.55

TMC Education 26-Sep-12 Chin Kon Yuen

* Buy 5 0.07 16.21 16.21

TMC Education 26-Sep-12 Yeow Cheng Khim

Buy 5 0.07 16.21 16.21

Elec and Eltek 25-Sep-12 Chan Wing Kwan

* Buy 5 17.92 0.67

0.67

HTL Int'l 25-Sep-12 Tay Kheng Hee

Sell 100 0.33 0.35

0.33

M Dev 25-Sep-12 Yu Pui Yan

Buy 7770 - 7.99

8.39

Petra F oods 25-Sep-12 Aberdeen Int'l F und Mgrs Ltd

* Buy 480 2.45 4.98 5.06

Samko Timber 25-Sep-12 Koh Boon Hong

* Buy 130 0.13 3.12 3.13

Samko Timber 25-Sep-12 Aris Sunarko

* Buy 130 0.13 3.57

3.57

Sri Trang Agro-Ind 25-Sep-12 Prasit Panidkul

Sell 200 0.61 0.55

0.53

ST Engineering 25-Sep-12 The Capital Grp Companies

Buy 4947 - 5.98

Stamford Ty res 25-Sep-12 Dawn Wee Wai Ying

* Buy 17 0.32 31.39 31.39

Stamford Ty res 25-Sep-12 Wee Kok Wah

Buy 17 0.32 16.1

16.1

Sunpower Grp 25-Sep-12 Artur J urczakowski

Sell 400 - 7.2

7.08

UOL Group 25-Sep-12 Wee Ee Chao

* Sell 1010 5.73 11.54

11.41

8Telecom Int'l 24-Sep-12 Ye Tiany un

Buy 22 0.14 2.73

2.73

China YuanBang Prop 24-Sep-12 Chen J ianfeng

* Buy 1000 0.12 1.71 1.86

Sakari Resources 24-Sep-12 Martin Dav id Purv is

Buy 846 1.88 0.22

0.29

Samko Timber 24-Sep-12 Koh Boon Hong

* Buy 247 0.12 3.11 3.12

Samko Timber 24-Sep-12 Aris Sunarko

* Buy 130 0.13 3.55

3.57

Serial Sy stem 24-Sep-12 Goh Bak Heng

Buy 75 0.1 35.59

35.59

Sunpower Grp 24-Sep-12 Artur J urczakowski

Sell 400 - 7.32

7.2

UOL Group 24-Sep-12 Wee Ee Chao

* Sell 490 5.83 11.62

11.54

8Telecom Int'l 21-Sep-12 Ye Tiany un

Buy 150 0.13 2.69

2.73

Aussino Group 21-Sep-12 Anthony Lim

* Sell 3092 0.15 51

49.98

CapitaRetail China Trt 21-Sep-12 Matthews Int'l Capital Mgt

* Buy 7868 - 6.01 7.13

Elec and Eltek 21-Sep-12 Chan Wing Kwan

* Buy 10 17.92 0.66

0.67

Serial Sy stem 21-Sep-12 Goh Bak Heng

Buy 150 0.1 35.57

35.59

Sri Trang Agro-Ind 21-Sep-12 Prasit Panidkul

Sell 400 0.64 0.58

0.55

Sunpower Grp 21-Sep-12 Artur J urczakowski

Sell 400 - 7.45

7.32

UIC 21-Sep-12 Wee Cho Yaw

* Buy 80 2.81 48.11

48.12

*Deemed Interest

Source: Business Times; SA: Share Allotment; ST: Share Transfer, B/R: Bonus/Rights Issue; OE:

Option Exercise; PL: Placement Shares

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Company Type

Particulars Ex

Date Paid/ Payable

GENTING SPS$500M5.125% PERPSEC BONDS INT 180412 - 171012

5.125% 11-Oct-12 18-Oct-12

UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD

0.01 ONE-TIER TAX 11-Oct-12

31-Oct-12

YUEXIU PROPERTY CO LIMITED DIVIDEND HKD 0.042

12-Oct-12 15-Nov-12

JTC S$200M4.826%N121024 ENTITL. REDEMPTION SGD 1

15-Oct-12 24-Oct-12

JTC S$200M4.826%N121024 INTEREST 240412 -

231012 4.826% 15-Oct-12 24-Oct-12

UNITED OVERSEAS AUSTRALIA LTD DIVIDEND UNFRANKED,DRP AUD

0.005 15-Oct-12 01-Nov-12

GLOBAL PREMIUM HOTELS LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD 0.002

ONE-TIER TAX 16-Oct-12 30-Oct-12

GUOCOLAND LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD

0.05 18-Oct-12

15-Nov-12

CHINA MERCHANTS HLDGS(PACIFIC) DIVIDEND SGD 0.0275 ONE-TIER

TAX 19-Oct-12 09-Nov-12

GUOCOLEISURE LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD

0.02 22-Oct-12

08-Nov-12

CORDLIFE GROUP LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD

0.018 ONE-TIER TAX 24-Oct-12

14-Nov-12

ELLIPSIZ LTD DIVIDEND

SGD 0.0016 ONE-TIER TAX 24-Oct-12

15-Nov-12

BRITISH & MALAYAN TRUSTEES LTD DIVIDEND SGD 0.027 TAX

EXEMPT 29-Oct-12 12-Nov-12

KARIN TECHNOLOGY HLDGS LIMITED DIVIDEND HKD 0.071

29-Oct-12 15-Nov-12

BOARDROOM LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD

0.02 ONE-TIER TAX 30-Oct-12

23-Nov-12

SIN GHEE HUAT CORPORATION LTD. DIVIDEND SGD 0.02

ONE-TIER TAX 30-Oct-12

14-Nov-12

AUSGROUP LIMITED DIVIDEND

SGD 0.0036 ONE-TIER TAX 31-Oct-12

21-Nov-12

AUSGROUP LIMITED DIVIDEND

SGD 0.0064 ONE-TIER TAX 31-Oct-12

21-Nov-12

GEMS TV HOLDINGS LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD 0.0095

31-Oct-12 15-Nov-12

K1 VENTURES LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD 0.005

ONE-TIER TAX 31-Oct-12 14-Nov-12

KIAN ANN ENGINEERING LTD DIVIDEND SGD

0.0082 ONE-TIER TAX 31-Oct-12

14-Nov-12

RYOBI KISO HOLDINGS LTD. DIVIDEND SGD 0.003

ONE-TIER TAX 31-Oct-12 14-Nov-12

AMTEK ENGINEERING LTD DIVIDEND SGD 0.022

ONE-TIER TAX 01-Nov-12 23-Nov-12

ASL MARINE HOLDINGS LTD DIVIDEND SGD

0.0175 ONE-TIER TAX 01-Nov-12

19-Nov-12

PERTAMA HOLDINGS LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD 0.0152

ONE-TIER TAX 01-Nov-12 16-Nov-12

SINGAPURA FINANCE LTD DIVIDEND SGD 0.06

ONE-TIER TAX 01-Nov-12

15-Nov-12

SPINDEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD

0.018 ONE-TIER TAX 02-Nov-12

19-Nov-12

CHOSEN HOLDINGS LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD

0.0066 ONE-TIER TAX 05-Nov-12

23-Nov-12

F J BENJAMIN HOLDINGS LTD DIVIDEND SGD 0.01

ONE-TIER TAX 05-Nov-12

27-Nov-12

HUPSTEEL LTD DIVIDEND SGD

0.005 ONE-TIER TAX 05-Nov-12

20-Nov-12

EU YAN SANG INTERNATIONAL LTD DIVIDEND SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER

TAX 06-Nov-12 23-Nov-12

EU YAN SANG INTERNATIONAL LTD DIVIDEND SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER

TAX 06-Nov-12 23-Nov-12

MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD DIVIDEND SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER

TAX 06-Nov-12 22-Nov-12

OLAM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD 0.04

ONE-TIER TAX 06-Nov-12

20-Nov-12

PARKSON RETAIL ASIA LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD 0.03

ONE-TIER TAX 06-Nov-12

23-Nov-12

SILVERLAKE AXIS LTD DIVIDEND SGD

0.008 ONE-TIER TAX 07-Nov-12

28-Nov-12

PEC LTD. DIVIDEND

SGD 0.025 ONE-TIER TAX 08-Nov-12

26-Nov-12

ACE ACHIEVE INFOCOM LIMITED DIVIDEND CNY 0.003

09-Nov-12 28-Nov-12

CH OFFSHORE LTD DIVIDEND SGD

0.02 ONE-TIER TAX 12-Nov-12

26-Nov-12

CH OFFSHORE LTD DIVIDEND SGD

0.02 ONE-TIER TAX 12-Nov-12

26-Nov-12

TEE INTERNATIONAL LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD

0.0125 ONE-TIER TAX 20-Nov-12

03-Dec-12

NX09100W 190601 INTEREST

0.025 22-Nov-12

03-Dec-12

NX11100X 210601 INTEREST

0.0225 22-Nov-12

03-Dec-12

DATAPULSE TECHNOLOGY LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER

TAX 26-Nov-12 06-Dec-12

DATAPULSE TECHNOLOGY LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER

TAX 26-Nov-12 06-Dec-12

SUNRIGHT LTD DIVIDEND SGD

0.002 ONE-TIER TAX 26-Nov-12

14-Dec-12

TEE INTERNATIONAL LIMITED DIVIDEND SGD

0.005 ONE-TIER TAX 14-Dec-12

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www.morganmarkets.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research

11 October 2012

Shipyards & Supply Chain

Ezra disposes 50% 'Connector' stake; JPM positive on

long term 'SURF' but near term headwinds -11/10/12

Shipyards & Supply Chain

Ajay Mirchandani AC

(65) 6882-2419

[email protected]

J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private

Limited

See page 7 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.

J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the

firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in

making their investment decision.

Singapore/Malaysia Offshore & Marine News

 Ezra disposes 50% stake in AMC Connector for US$45.5 million: Asset is

now fully owned by Aker Oilfield services but is bareboat charter to EMAS for

10 years (Ezra, October 11)

 Siem Offshore declares options for 2 x OSCVs at STX OSV. Deliveries are

scheduled from Brattvaag in Norway in 2Q 2014. The hulls of the vessels will

be delivered from STX OSV Tulcea in Romania. (Company, Oct 10)

 Nam Cheong wins 2 x PSVs for US$52.1 mn from undisclosed clients. The

vessels will be built at the company’s sub-contracted yards in China, with

delivery scheduled in 1Q13. (Upstream, Oct 10)

Supply Chain

 ADM plans to invest more than US$200 mn in manufacturing and storage

assets in the US, Industrial Info Resources said. (Bloomberg, Oct 10)

Industry & Order News Flow

 Hyundai wins $270 mn LNG-FSRU from Norway’s Hoegh LNG. Delivery is

scheduled in 1H15. (Bloomberg, Oct 10)

 STX O&S says a client has cancelled order for 2 x tanker worth KRW110.2

bn (~US$99 mn). The client is a South Korean firm which went out of business

and could not honour the contract.( Reuters, Oct 10)

 Siem Offshore orders “1+1” Installation support vessel at Norway’s

Fjellstrand. The firm unit costs US$55 mn and is for delivery in March 2014.

(Siem Offshore, Oct 10)

Commodities & Shipping

 China will offer tax, financing and insurance support to private shipping

companies to help them compete in overseas markets as carriers contend with

losses and a plunge in freight rates, Ministry of Transport said. Government

support to include increased investment and providing help to access FX.

Private operators are also encouraged to form alliances and cooperate with

state-owned companies as well as invest abroad. (Bloomberg, Oct 10)

 Coal demand may rise as Natural gas rig counts have fallen 53% since early

October 2011. While gas output could still continue to rise y/y but the slowing

growth may lead to tighter supplies and push prices higher. (Bloomberg, Oct 10)

 Global sugar output to remain flat at 177.1 mn tons in 2012-13 after

growing for 3 consecutive years, Researcher F.O.Licht says. Sugar market to

see another surplus in 2012-13. (Bloomberg, Oct 10)

 Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia surged 17.4% to a record 2.48 mn tons in

Sept, Malaysian Palm Oil board said, Rising stockpiles may further pressure

CPO prices which plunged to 3-year low last week. (Bloomberg, Oct 10)

 Shipping recovery pushed back to 2014 on weak demand, RS Platou says.

However, the fleet growth has peaked and will slow sharply in the next 2 years.

(Asiasis, Oct 10)

 Near Term outlook for iron-ore and copper is volatile as China’s growth has

cooled more rapidly than previously expected, Rio Tinto. (Bloomberg, Oct 10)

Figure 1: 1D Absolute share price

Source: Bloomberg.

3.7%

0.8%

0.7%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.3%

-0.5%

-0.7%

-1.0%

-1.4%

-1.6%

-3.0%

-4%-2%0%2%4%6%

Rongsheng

Noble

HSCEI

STX OSV

MMHE

HSI

SMM

KLCI

Olam

Yangzijiang

Ezion

FSSTI

Keppel Corp

COSCO Corp

Dy na-Mac

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Ajay Mirchandani

(65) 6882-2419

[email protected]

J.P. Morgan View

 Our Positive long term outlook in SURF market reinforced after a meeting

with Subsea 7 management.Subsea7, Saipem, Technip well positioned for

upcoming awards. Link to full note

Baltic Freight Indices: More ships chartered to carry ore to China despite the

holidays; global supply grew <1% in Aug and Sep Link to full note

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