MARKET WATCH 17th OCT 2012 - AsianBookie.Com Forums

17-Oct 2012 Wednesday 2:45 PM (4210 days ago)

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STI         3,047     +4      +0.12%
DOW       13,552   +128 +0.95%
S&P         1,455     +15    +1.03%
FTSE        5,871     +65    +1.13%
DAX          7,376     +115  +1.58%
GOLD         1,751    +5       +0.27%
OIL            92.44     +0.35   +0.38%
PRE-HK OPEN +253pts

CREDIT SUISSE GLOBAL RISK APPETITE (EQUITY): -0.43 (15 Oct 2012)
CREDIT SUISSE GLOBAL RISK APPETITE              :  -0.36 (15 Oct 2012)

17 Oct 2012 08:39

DJ MARKET TALK: Singapore's STI Set To Open Up; 3020-3065 Likely

0039 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore's STI is likely to open higher, buoyed by Wall Street's rally Tuesday and gains in regional markets. But the likely early-morning rally "will be a chance for investors to cash out of the market," says Kevin Scully, executive chairman at NRA Capital. "People have already made some gains from the recent rally and are looking to cash out," he says. "The bias is on the downside" into year-end. "The key remains the corporate earnings season, which I don't think will be good." He expects weak and conservative 4Q guidance. While U.S. companies reported well-received earnings Tuesday, with the exceptions of IBM (IBM) and Intel (INTC), "U.S. companies will do better because of the (weaker) U.S. dollar in translation," he says, adding they are bigger vs Asian companies, which may get left behind and which are suffering a margin squeeze. The STI ended Tuesday up 0.1% at 3046.81, after touching a 3059.31 high intraday. A 3020-3065 range is likely. Ascott Ltd. CEO Chong Kee Hiong told Dow Jones the world's largest serviced-apartment operator is studying F&N's (F99.SG) hospitality assets, but has no current plans to bid. Keppel Land (K17.SG) bought a China residential site for S$133 million and was the top bidder in a Singapore government land auction for a 99-year-leasehold residential site at S$434.6 million. Palm-oil plays may be in focus as concerns emerge over Indonesian inventories' rise to a record in September.

17 Oct 2012 08:30

DJ MARKET TALK: Singapore Exports Fall In September, Misses View

0030 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore's key non-oil domestic exports contract for the second-straight month, falling 3.4% on-year in September as a sharp drop in electronics shipments leads to a miss of the 2.3% expansion tipped by 11 analysts in a Dow Jones Newswires poll. Although the decline is at a slower pace than the revised 10.7% contraction in August. Exports from the key electronics sector and the volatile pharmaceuticals segment stayed weak, extending their declines from August. Electronics in particular slumped faster with a 16.4% drop after contracting 11.0% in August. Measured on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms, non-oil domestic exports rose 1.6%, missing the 4.4% growth expected by economists in the same poll. The dismal numbers suggest Singapore's bellwether economy could still be in for a tough ride in the closing months of the year, even as government officials project a more positive outlook in 2013.

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17-Oct 2012 Wednesday 2:47 PM (4210 days ago)

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1. RELIGARE HEALTH TRUST (90 cents / IPO): With Indian government bonds now yielding about

8%, Religare’s 8.9% - 9.1% indicative yield for FY’13 and FY’14 respectively does not look all that

enticing.

2. FINANCIAL MARKETS: Markets in US and Europe rallied as concerns over the crisis in the

eurozone continue to dissipate. Two members from Chancellor Merkel ’s party said Germany would

support Spain through precautionary credit. . . . . In the US, 35 of 48 S&P500 companies that have

released Sept quarter results beat expectations. . . . . Citigroup rose despite Moody’s

downgrading its credit rating outlook to negative.

3. GLOBAL FUND FLOWS: Latest update from EPFR shows continued inflow into Global Bond Funds

(US$8.2 bln in the latest week bringing the year-to-date total to US$348 bln) and outflow from

Global Equity Funds. Here in Singapore, the continued strength of S-Reits suggests strong interest

in this high-yielding sector.

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17-Oct 2012 Wednesday 2:52 PM (4210 days ago)

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EPS, TP and Rating changes

EPS TP

(% change) T+1 T+2 Chg Up/Dn Rating Axis Bank Limited

0 0 (4) 22 O (O) L&T Finance Holdings Initiation

(6) N (NA) Mindtree Ltd 2 3 0 13 N (N) NIIT

Technologies (5) (4) 0 33 O (O) Reliance Industries

1 2 1 5 O (O) Tokyu REIT 0 0

36 1 N (U) Advance Residence 3 3 0 10 O (O) IGB

REIT Initiation

Epistar Corporation (47) (4) (7) 27 O (O) Faraday Tech. Corp.

(1) (1) 0 30 O (O) ICBC 6 12

23 28 O (O) CCB 7 7 20

40 O (O) ABC 1 1 26 9 U (U) BOC

9 9 15 3 N (N) BoCom

3 7 10 (4) U (U) China Merchants Bk 5

4 19 20 N (N) CNCB 6 11 28

26 N (N) China Minsheng 6 5 21 6 U (U) Chongqing

Rural 3 12 12 8 N (N) Sany Heavy

14 (16) (8) U (U) Zoomlion 51 (1)

0 (15) U (U) Lonking (8) 4 0 16 O

(N) Belle 0 0 6 22 O (O) Parkson

(4) 2 8 29 N (N) Golden Eagle

0 2 15 20 O (O) Springland (4) 1

6 33 O (O)

Connecting clients to corporates

CQA and Credit Suisse First Annual CQAsia

Conference

Date 24-25 October, Level 88, ICC, Hong Kong

Wednesday, 17 October 2012

Asian Daily (Asia Edition)

Top of the pack ...

China Market Strategy

Vincent Chan (4)

New report: The worst is probably over

China Banks Sector – Increase to OW

Sanjay Jain (5)

New report: A play on (stabilising) economy

China Basic Materials Sector

Trina Chen (6)

What if the worst is over? "Quality beta" under flat price assumptions

China Transportation Sector – Maintain OW

Davin Wu (7)

Chinese Airlines to benefit from stabilising economic conditions

Key speakers and events

“Investment Management Trends in Asia” (Moderator: Xi Li, Hong Kong University of Science and

Technology) “Normal and Extreme Correlation: Implications for International Equity Allocation”

(Moderator: Bruno Solnik, HEC

– Paris / HKUST)

“Advances in Quantitative Investing” (Moderator: Easton Ragsdale, Robeco USA) (Panelists:Pankaj

Patel, Credit Suisse) “End of the Line” (Jim Walker,

Asiaomics)

K.C. Chan, Secretary of Financial, Services and Treasury, Government of Hong Kong

“What Works in Asia” (Jahanzeb Naseer, Credit Suisse)

C.P. All PCL. (CPALL.BK)

... and the whole pack

Global

Global Equity Strategy

Andrew Garthwaite (8)

China: signs of stabilisation, but...

Regional

Asia Equity Strategy

Sakthi Siva (9)

New report: Korea—Current discount is the second biggest over the past five years

Asian Refining Fortnightly

Sanjay Mookim (10)

New report: Five-year-low inventories support margins

Asian Tech Strategy

Manish Nigam (11)

September quarter preview - one page summary

China

China Market Strategy

Vincent Chan (4)

New report: The worst is probably over

China Market Strategy

Vincent Cha

Date 15-18 October, US / Canada

Coverage Analyst Karim Salamatian

Europe

Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCEI.BO)

Date 18-19 October, London

Coverage Analyst Anantha Narayan

Contact [email protected] or Your usual sales representat

New report: The worst is probably over—add some beta

China Banks Sector – Increase to OW

Sanjay Jain (5)

New report: A play on (stabilising) economy

China Construction Machinery Sector – Maintain UW Yang Y.

Song (13)

Position for infrastructure investment recovery

China Sportswear Sector – Increase to MW

Eva Wang (14)

Recovery road map; Upgrade Anta to OUTPERFORM

China Basic Materials Sector

Trina Chen (6)

What if the worst is over? "Quality beta" under flat price assumptions

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17-Oct 2012 Wednesday 2:55 PM (4210 days ago)

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Asian indices - performance

(% change) Latest 1D 1W 3M YTD

ASX300 4,476 0.2 (0.3) 8.4 10.4

CSEALL 5,608 (0.8) (3.9) 15.6 (7.7)

Hang Seng 21,207 0.3 1.3 9.0 15.0

H-SHARE 10,367 (0.1) 4.0 10.5 4.3

JCI 4,329 0.4 1.1 6.1 13.3

KLSE 1,654 (0.1) (0.6) 0.9 8.0

KOSPI 1,942 0.8 (1.9) 6.6 6.3

KSE100 15,674 (0.5) (0.1) 9.0 38.1

NIFTY 5,648 (0.7) (1.0) 8.7 22.1

PCOMP 5,400 0.3 0.1 2.2 23.5

RED CHIP 4,113 1.2 2.0 8.1 11.7

SET 1,287 (0.2) (0.4) 5.2 25.6

STI 3,047 0.1 (0.6) 1.1 15.1

TWSE 7,471 0.7 (1.9) 4.8 5.6

VNINDEX 399 2.0 1.4 (4.4) 13.6

Thomson Financial Datastream

Asian currencies (vs US$)

(% change) Latest 1D 1W 3M YTD

A$ 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6

Bt 30.7 0.1 0.1 3.0 2.9

D 20,850.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9

NT$ 29.3 (0.1) 0.2 2.6 3.5

P 41.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 6.1

PRs 95.4 (0.1) 0.1 (0.9) (5.7)

Rp 9,598.0 0.4 0.2 (1.1) (5.5)

Rs 52.9 0.4 (0.3) 4.6 0.3

S$ 1.2 0.0 0.9 3.6 6.3

SLRs 128.7 0.0 (0.3) 4.0 (11.5)

W 1,107.2 (0.1) 0.3 3.6 4.1

Thomson Financial Datastream

Global indices

(% change) Latest 1D 1W 3M YTD

DJIA 13,538 0.8 0.5 6.4 10.8

S&P 500 1,453 0.9 0.8 7.3 15.5

NASDAQ 3,095 1.0 1.0 6.8 18.8

SOX 379 1.9 1.6 7.4 4.1

EU-STOX 2,573 1.3 1.6 5.4 8.6

FTSE 5,871 1.1 1.0 3.7 5.4

DAX 7,376 1.6 2.0 12.3 25.1

CAC-40 3,501 2.4 3.5 10.1 10.8

NIKKEI 8,701 1.4 (0.8) (0.6) 2.9

TOPIX 732 1.3 0.6 (1.5) 0.5

10 YR LB 1.72 3.5 0.5 16.9 (8.3)

2 YR LB 0.27 3.1 3.1 17.8 11.3

US$:E 1.30 0.7 1.2 6.3 0.6

US$:Y 78.9 (0.3) (0.8) (0.1) (2.5)

BRENT 115.5 (0.3) 1.3 10.6 7.3

GOLD 1,744.4 0.4 (1.1) 9.8 11.6

VIX 14.9 (2.6) (9.2) (13.1) (36.5)

Thomson Financial Datastream

MSCI Asian indices – valuation & perf.

EPS grth. P/E (x) Performance

MSCI Index 12E 13E 12E 13E 1D 1M YTD

Asia F X Japan 10 13 12.2 10.7 0.0 (0.5) 12.1

Asia Pac F X J. 6 11 12.4 11.2 0.0 (0.6) 11.8

Australia (2) 1 13.1 11.9 (0.1) (1.0) 10.7

China 2 9 9.9 9.0 0.0 3.4 8.5

Hong Kong (13) 11 15.9 14.3 0.2 0.4 17.5

India 10 14 14.7 12.9 (0.2) 4.6 22.2

Indonesia 7 13 15.3 13.6 (0.3) 0.8 3.5

Korea 34 18 9.5 8.1 (0.4) (4.9) 9.7

Malaysia 11 11 15.5 14.0 0.1 (0.2) 8.8

Pakistan 5 8 7.2 6.7 0.1 (2.0) 17.7

Philippines 12 13 17.7 15.8 0.2 1.9 30.9

Singapore 8 6 13.7 13.0 0.1 (2.1) 22.1

Sri Lanka 18 16 13.2 11.4 (0.9) (2.8) (1.0)

Taiwan 10 21 16.7 13.8 (0.1) (3.5) 7.6

Thailand 14 19 12.5 10.5 (0.9) (1.4) 21

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17-Oct 2012 Wednesday 2:56 PM (4210 days ago)

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Wednesday, 17 October 2012

Asian Daily

- 2 of 43 -

Asian indices - performance

(% change) Latest 1D 1W 3M YTD

ASX300 4,476 0.2 (0.3) 8.4 10.4

CSEALL 5,608 (0.8) (3.9) 15.6 (7.7)

Hang Seng 21,207 0.3 1.3 9.0 15.0

H-SHARE 10,367 (0.1) 4.0 10.5 4.3

JCI 4,329 0.4 1.1 6.1 13.3

KLSE 1,654 (0.1) (0.6) 0.9 8.0

KOSPI 1,942 0.8 (1.9) 6.6 6.3

KSE100 15,674 (0.5) (0.1) 9.0 38.1

NIFTY 5,648 (0.7) (1.0) 8.7 22.1

PCOMP 5,400 0.3 0.1 2.2 23.5

RED CHIP 4,113 1.2 2.0 8.1 11.7

SET 1,287 (0.2) (0.4) 5.2 25.6

STI 3,047 0.1 (0.6) 1.1 15.1

TWSE 7,471 0.7 (1.9) 4.8 5.6

VNINDEX 399 2.0 1.4 (4.4) 13.6

Thomson Financial Datastream

Asian currencies (vs US$)

(% change) Latest 1D 1W 3M YTD

A$ 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6

Bt 30.7 0.1 0.1 3.0 2.9

D 20,850.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9

NT$ 29.3 (0.1) 0.2 2.6 3.5

P 41.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 6.1

PRs 95.4 (0.1) 0.1 (0.9) (5.7)

Rp 9,598.0 0.4 0.2 (1.1) (5.5)

Rs 52.9 0.4 (0.3) 4.6 0.3

S$ 1.2 0.0 0.9 3.6 6.3

SLRs 128.7 0.0 (0.3) 4.0 (11.5)

W 1,107.2 (0.1) 0.3 3.6 4.1

Thomson Financial Datastream

Global indices

(% change) Latest 1D 1W 3M YTD

DJIA 13,538 0.8 0.5 6.4 10.8

S&P 500 1,453 0.9 0.8 7.3 15.5

NASDAQ 3,095 1.0 1.0 6.8 18.8

SOX 379 1.9 1.6 7.4 4.1

EU-STOX 2,573 1.3 1.6 5.4 8.6

FTSE 5,871 1.1 1.0 3.7 5.4

DAX 7,376 1.6 2.0 12.3 25.1

CAC-40 3,501 2.4 3.5 10.1 10.8

NIKKEI 8,701 1.4 (0.8) (0.6) 2.9

TOPIX 732 1.3 0.6 (1.5) 0.5

10 YR LB 1.72 3.5 0.5 16.9 (8.3)

2 YR LB 0.27 3.1 3.1 17.8 11.3

US$:E 1.30 0.7 1.2 6.3 0.6

US$:Y 78.9 (0.3) (0.8) (0.1) (2.5)

BRENT 115.5 (0.3) 1.3 10.6 7.3

GOLD 1,744.4 0.4 (1.1) 9.8 11.6

VIX 14.9 (2.6) (9.2) (13.1) (36.5)

Thomson Financial Datastream

MSCI Asian indices – valuation & perf.

EPS grth. P/E (x) Performance

MSCI Index 12E 13E 12E 13E 1D 1M YTD

Asia F X Japan 10 13 12.2 10.7 0.0 (0.5) 12.1

Asia Pac F X J. 6 11 12.4 11.2 0.0 (0.6) 11.8

Australia (2) 1 13.1 11.9 (0.1) (1.0) 10.7

China 2 9 9.9 9.0 0.0 3.4 8.5

Hong Kong (13) 11 15.9 14.3 0.2 0.4 17.5

India 10 14 14.7 12.9 (0.2) 4.6 22.2

Indonesia 7 13 15.3 13.6 (0.3) 0.8 3.5

Korea 34 18 9.5 8.1 (0.4) (4.9) 9.7

Malaysia 11 11 15.5 14.0 0.1 (0.2) 8.8

Pakistan 5 8 7.2 6.7 0.1 (2.0) 17.7

Philippines 12 13 17.7 15.8 0.2 1.9 30.9

Singapore 8 6 13.7 13.0 0.1 (2.1) 22.1

Sri Lanka 18 16 13.2 11.4 (0.9) (2.8) (1.0)

Taiwan 10 21 16.7 13.8 (0.1) (3.5) 7.6

Thailand 14 19 12.5 10.5 (0.9) (1.4) 21.2

* IBES estimates

China Basic Materials Monthly Trina Chen (15)

October 2012: Too flat for October, demand divergent

China Property Sector – Maintain UW Jinsong Du (16)

New report: Performance gap to widen

China Consumer Discretionary Sector – Maintain OW Kevin Yin (17)

Economy likely to bottom out; consumer discretionary sector close to fundamental trough

China Small-Cap Sector Kenny Lau, CFA (18)

More hopes supporting recovery

China Transportation Sector – Maintain OW Davin Wu (7)

Chinese Airlines to benefit from stabilising economic conditions

India

India Utilities Sector Amish Shah, CFA (19)

2Q13 preview: Expect a weak quarter, ex-JPVL

Axis Bank Limited (AXSB IN) – Maintain O Ashish Gupta (20)

Retail build-up starting to deliver

L&T Finance Holdings Limited (LTFH IN) – Initiating Coverage with N Sunil Tirumalai (21)

New report: Strong growth prospects offset by high corporate exposure

Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN) – Maintain N Anantha Narayan (22)

Muted revenue growth can be a near-term issue

NIIT Technologies (NITEC IN) – Maintain O Sagar Rastogi (23)

On track to deliver strong revenue growth, attractive valuations

Reliance Industries (RIL IN) – Maintain O Sanjay Mookim (24)

New report: Highest ever refining EBITDA, petchem drags

Indonesia

PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI IJ) – Maintain O Agus Sandianto (25)

9M12 production—near the peak

Japan

Japan Real Estate Sector – Maintain OW Masahiro Mochizuki (26)

Rise in office demand being overlooked; sector stocks poised to advance

Tokyu REIT (8957 JP) – Upgrade to N Masahiro Mochizuki (27)

Upgrade to NEUTRAL; shares at appropriate levels

Advance Residence (3269 JP) – Maintain O Masahiro Mochizuki (28)

Forecast continued growth in EPU; maintain OUTPERFORM

Malaysia

IGB REIT (IGBREIT MK) – Initiating Coverage with O Tan Ting Min (29)

New report: Mid Valley Mega REIT

Singapore

Singapore Property Sector Yvonne Voon (30)

Keppel Land tops bid for New Upper Changi Road GLS, priced 13% ahead of expectations

South Korea

Samsung Engineering (028050 KS) – Maintain O Minseok Sinn (31)

The evolution process is ongoing

Taiwan

Epistar Corporation (2448 TT) – Maintain O Jerry Su (32)

2012: A transitional year

Faraday Technology Corporation (3035 TT) – Maintain O Kevin Chen (33)

3Q result preview: Sales beats with OPM at high-end, buy on weakness

Thailand

Thai Telecoms Sector – Maintain OW Colin McCallum, CA (34)

Will yield compression be the next leg up for AIS and DTAC?

Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) – Maintain O Dan Fineman (35)

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17-Oct 2012 Wednesday 3:02 PM (4210 days ago)

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17-Oct 2012 Wednesday 3:06 PM (4210 days ago)

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Regional Morning Notes

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

EGIONAL

ector

Aviation

Page 2

Takeaways from regional aviation marketing trip.

Plantation

Page 5

Mixed views from trade seminar. But CPO prices likely to be supported by higher China demand before

new import control on 1 Jan 13.

HINA

esults

Lijun International (2005 HK/SELL/HK$2.01/Target: HK$1.60) Page 7

9M12: Revenue grows 16.2% yoy, in line with our expectation.

pdate

China Singyes Solar Technologies (750 HK/BUY/HK$3.97/TP:HK$5.50) Page 10

Distributive PV target increasing a further 50% within a month implies strong earnings upside.

ALAYSIA

pdate

Top Glove (TOPG MK/BUY/RM5.31/Target: RM6.10) Page 13

Reaffirm optimism over Top Glove’s delivery of robust growth, driven by volume growth and

stable-to-rising margins.

INGAPORE

pdate

Super Group (SUPER SP/BUY/S$2.52/Target: S$3.00) Page 16

Key takeaways from UOBKH Asia Consumer Day.

HAILAND

esults

Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB/BUY/Bt165.50/Target: Bt210.00) Page 19

3Q12: Net profit rises 20% yoy, backed by strong loan growth and firmer

NIM.

pdate

PTT Exploration & Production Page 22

(PTTEP TB/BUY/Bt157.00/Target: Bt165.00)

We expect 3Q12 earnings to improve substantially mainly from volume growth and higher gas ASP..

Key Indices

Prev Close 1D % 1W % 1M % YTD %

DJIA 13551.8 1.0 0.6 (0.3) 10.9

S&P 500 1454.9 1.0 0.9 (0.7) 15.7

FTSE 100 5870.5 1.1 1.0 (0.8) 5.4

AS30 4513.9 0.2 (0.3) 2.1 9.8

CSI 300 2298.2 0.1 (0.9) 1.7 (2.0) FSSTI

3046.8 0.1 (0.6) (1.0) 15.1

HSCEI 10367.5 (0.1) 4.0 6.0 4.3

HSI 21207.1 0.3 1.3 2.7 15.0

JCI 4329.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 13.3

KLCI 1653.5 (0.1) (0.6) 0.6 8.0

KOSPI 1941.5 0.8 (1.9) (3.0) 6.3

Nikkei 225 8701.3 1.4 (0.8) (5.0) 2.9

SET 1287.5 (0.2) (0.4) 0.7 25.6

TWSE 7471.0 0.7 (1.9) (3.8) 5.6

BDI 981 4.3 12.1 48.2 (43.6) CPO (RM/mt)

2260 (1.7) 2.7 (17.5) (28.5) Nymex Crude

(US$/bbl) 92 0.1 1.1 (4.6) (6.7)

Source: Bloomberg

Top BUYs/SELLs

Current Target Pot Company Ticker Price Price

+/- (lcy) (lcy) (%)

Top BUYs

China Mobile 941 HK 83.70 100.00 19.5

Kunlun Energy 135 HK 13.92 16.80 20.7

Sinopharm 1099 HK 25.30 28.20 11.5

Multi-Purpose Hldgs MPU MK 3.59 4.20 17.0

DBS DBS SP 14.22 19.45 36.8

Krung Thai Bank KTB TB 18.60 21.75 16.9

PTT PTT TB 311.00 405.00 30.2

Top SELLs

China Merchants Hldgs 144 HK 23.80 19.60 (17.6) Tiger Airways TGR

SP 0.75 0.51 (32.0)

Key Assumptions

2011 2012F 2013F GDP (% yoy)

US 1.7 1.5 1.5

Euro Zone 1.4 (0.5) 0.4

Japan (0.8) 2.0 1.5

Singapore 4.9 2.0 3.0

Malaysia 5.1 5.0 4.7

Thailand 0.1 6.0 3.4

Indonesia 6.5 6.1 6.3

Hong Kong 5.0 1.5 3.5

China 9.3 7.6 8.0

2011 2012F 2013F

WTI (US$/bbl) 97.5 102 111

Aluminium (US$/mt) 2,420 1,993 1,963

Copper (US$/mt) 8,851 7,865 8,225

Gold Price London (US$/ounce) 1,568 1,645 1,775

Iron Ore (USc/dmtu) 168 126 128

CPO (US$/mt) 1,025 1,030 1,110

BDI 1,548 1,700 1,800

Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

Venue Beg Close

Greater China Energy Sector Brunei 17 Oct 17 Oct

Analyst Presentation

Luk Fook Holdings International Singapore 16 Oct 17 Oct

Corporate Roadshow

Singapore Oil Service Sector Hong Kong 16 Oct 17 Oct

Analyst Presentation

BW Plantation Toronto 22 Oct 23 Oct

Corporate Roadshow

Hong Leong Industries Kuala Lumpur 25 Oct 25 Oct

Corporate Presentation

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MARKET PULSE: Residential Property, Swiber, Keppel Land 17 Oct 2012 KEY IDEA Singapore Residential Property: Buyers out in force The URA reported a headline total of 2,771 new private homes (incuding 150 EC units) sold in Sep 2012, up a whooping 80% MoM. (In the same month last year, 2,060 new homes were sold, showing a more subdued 26% MoM increase.) Several new OCR launches performed strongly: ECO (Bedok South, 748 total units) sold 402 units at a median selling price of S$1,283 psf, and Kovan Regency (Kovan Rise, 393 total units) sold 369 units at S$1,275 psf. In our view, Sep 2012 sales points to a continued healthy state of buyer demand in the market, particularly with the additional visibility of low rates till 2015 after the announcement of QE3. Maintain OVERWEIGHT rating on the residential property sector, and we expect continued strength in the mass-market segment in FY12. Our top stock pick is City Developments [FV: S$13.18, BUY] for its mass-market exposure and strong balance sheet. (Eli Lee) MORE REPORTS Swiber Holdings: More Indonesian work in the pipeline? Summary: Indonesia’s state-owned Pertamina Hulu Energi has invited contractors to register their interest in the bid round for the GG oilfield development. According to Upstream, the consortium of Meindo Elang Indah and Swiber Offshore has registered for pre-qualification. With a declining rate of oil production in Indonesia, we expect the country to increase oil field development and production activities, benefiting EPCIC contractors such as Swiber Holdings. The industry outlook is buoyant but in order for the stock to re-rate, we think the group has to demonstrate that it is able to grow its operations by the generation of sustainable operating cash flows besides the support of leverage. Given the limited upside potential to our fair value estimate of S$0.66, we maintain our HOLD rating. (Low Pei Han) Keppel Land: Land acquisitions in Singapore and China Keppel Land (KPLD) put in a top bid of S$434.6m for a GLS (Government Land Sales) site at New Upper Changi Road yesterday. The tender attracted 11 bids in total, and KPLD’s bid (translating to a land cost of S$791 psf) was 7% above the second highest. The 99-year lease-hold site has an area of 343k sq ft with a maximum GFA of 549k sq ft, and would likely be developed into a condominium project with ~550 units. It is located close to the Tanah Merah MRT station, and accessible by the ECP and PIE. We estimated breakeven and selling ASPs of S$1,200 and S$1,300, respectively, for this project. In addition, KPLD acquired its fifth residential site in Chengdu, China for RMB 680.4m (S$132m). This Chinese site, located in Xinjin County in Sichuan province, has an area of 28.7 hectares and is ~20km away from the city center. We would speak with management further about these two acquisitions and in the meantime, maintain HOLD with our fair value estimate of S$3.44 under review. (Eli Lee) For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report. NEWS HEADLINES - US stocks closed higher Tuesday, with optimism following strong earnings for several companies and reports that Spain is considering requesting a line of credit from the EU. The Dow finished 1% up at 13,551.78. The S&P 500 Index rose 1% to 1,454.92. - Keppel T&T reported 3Q13 PATMI of S$13.5m, down 62% YoY. Revenue climbed 22% YoY to S$34.3m. - UE E&C Ltd. has entered a JV agreement with Sichuan Sanjia Real Estate (Singapore) Pte Ltd to undertake property development cum construction and/or project management in Malaysia. - AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has extended 96.7% percent of the underlying leases for 27 Penjuru Lane out to FY2016 and FY2018, once the asset’s master lease expires in December 2012. 27 Penjuru Lane represented 19.1% of the REIT’s net rental income as at 30 Sep 2012. - Kitchen Culture Holdings has entered into a joint venture agreement with unrelated third parties for the establishment of a JV in HK for the sale and distribution of kitchen systems, kitchen appliances, wardrobe systems, household furniture and accessories.

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Key Singapore Indices

Close Chg % Chg

STI 3046.8 3.8 0.1

Catalist 135.3 -0.3 -0.2

Finance 762.2 3.0 0.4

Property 724.5 5.0 0.7

Electronics 537.2 2.0 0.4

Vol(m) 1546.2 215.9 16.2

Val(S$m) 1202.8 257.7 27.3

World Indices

Close Chg % Chg

Dow Jones 13551.8 127.6 1.0

Nasdaq 3101.2 37.0 1.2

S&P500 1454.9 14.8 1.0

FTSE 5870.5 64.9 1.1

KLCI 1653.5 -0.9 -0.1

Hang Seng 21207.1 58.8 0.3

Nikkei 8701.3 123.4 1.4

SET 1287.5 -3.1 -0.2

KOSPI 1941.5 16.0 0.8

TWSE 7471.0 52.1 0.7

Market Statistics (SG)

STI 52-week range 2,607 3,111

No. of gainers 313

No. of losers 200

No. of unchanged 175

Economic Statistics

S$/US$ 1.2 0.0

Yen/US$ 78.9 0.0

3-mth S$ SIBOR 0.4 0.0

3-mth US$ SIBOR 0.3 0.0

Crude futures (US$) 92.4 0.3

Research Team

(65) 6531 9800

e-mail: [email protected]

Key Idea

Singapore Residential Property: Buyers out in force The URA reported a headline total of 2,771 new

private homes (incuding 150 EC units) sold in Sep 2012, up a whooping 80% MoM. (In the same month

last year, 2,060 new homes were sold, showing a more subdued 26% MoM increase.) Several new OCR

launches performed strongly: ECO (Bedok South, 748 total units) sold 402 units at a median selling

price of S$1,283 psf, and Kovan Regency (Kovan Rise, 393 total units) sold 369 units at S$1,275

psf. In our view, Sep 2012 sales points to a continued healthy state of buyer demand in the market,

particularly with the additional visibility of low rates till 2015 after the announcement of QE3.

Maintain OVERWEIGHT rating on the residential property sector, and we expect continued strength in

the mass-market segment in FY12. Our top stock pick is City Developments [FV: S$13.18, BUY] for its

mass-market exposure and strong balance sheet.

More reports:

- Swiber Holdings: More Indonesian work in the pipeline?

- Keppel Land: Land acquisitions in Singapore and China

News Headlines

• US stocks closed higher Tuesday, with optimism following strong earnings for several companies

and reports that Spain is considering requesting a line of credit from the EU. The Dow finished 1%

up at 13,551.78. The S&P 500

Index rose 1% to 1,454.92.

• Keppel T&T reported 3Q13 PATMI of S$13.5m, down

62% YoY. Revenue climbed 22% YoY to S$34.3m.

• UE E&C Ltd. has entered a JV agreement with Sichuan Sanjia Real Estate (Singapore) Pte Ltd to

undertake property development cum construction and/or project management in Malaysia.

• AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has extended 96.7% percent of the underlying leases for 27

Penjuru Lane out to FY2016 and FY2018, once the asset’s master lease

expires in December 2012. 27 Penjuru Lane represented

19.1% of the REIT’s net rental income as at 30 Sep

2012.

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17-Oct 2012 Wednesday 3:26 PM (4210 days ago)

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OCBC Investment Research

Market Pulse

17 Oct 2012

Singapore Residential Property: Buyers out in force

● Headline 2,771 units sold, up 80% MoM

● Strong sales at new OCR launches

● Top pick: City Dev

Headline total of 2,771 units sold.

The URA reported that a headline total of

2,771 new private homes (incuding 150 EC

units) were sold in Sep 2012, up a whooping

80% MoM. (In the same month last year,

2,060 new homes were sold, showing a more subdued 26% MoM increase.) Excluding EC

and landed units from Sep 2012 sales, 2,582

units were sold - up 87% MoM and 59% YoY

- with the take-up rate sustained above par at 117% (versus 132% last month). Despite

developers launching over 2,000 new units in

Sep 2012, the inventory of launched and unsold units in the market fell 6% MoM to

6,158 units due to a bullish take-up rate.

Strong responses at new OCR launches. Excluding EC and landed units, 2026 new homes were sold in

the OCR (Outside Central Region) in Sep 12, up a strong 154% from the 799 units sold last month.

This is mostly attributable to several new OCR launches performing strongly during the month. ECO

(Bedok South, 748 total units) sold 402 units at a median selling price of S$1,283 psf, Kovan

Regency (Kovan Rise, 393 total units) sold 369 units at S$1,275 psf, and Riversails (Upper

Serangoon Crescent, 920 total units) with 203 units sold at S$849 psf. Sales performances in the

RCR (Rest of Central Region) and CCR (Core Central Region) remain at similar levels from last month

- at

308 units (down 16% MoM) and 248 units

(up 14% MoM) sold, respectively.

Still a liquidity story.

In our view, Sep 2012 sales clearly points to a healthy state of buyer demand in the

market. In particular, with increased visibility

of sustained low rates till 2015 after the announcement of QE3, we believe that an environment of

strong liquidity continues to drive demand and sales of mass-market units priced below a price

quantum of S$1.2m.

Maintain OVERWEIGHT on sector.

We maintain OVERWEIGHT rating on the residential property sector and expect

continued strength in the mass-market

segment in FY12. Our top stock pick is City Developments [FV: S$13.18, BUY] for its mass-market

exposure and strong balance sheet. (Eli Lee)

. . . . .

Swiber Holdings: More Indonesian work in the pipeline?

● Potential Indonesian EPCI work

● Indonesia to award more contracts

● Monitoring operating cash flows

Likely to be in the run for Indonesian

EPCI contract

Indonesia’s state-owned Pertamina Hulu Energi, the operator of the offshore northwest Java

production sharing contract, has invited contractors to register their interest in the bid round

for the GG oilfield development. This is an engineering, procurement, construction and installation

(EPCI) contract, and will involve the fabrication and installation of a four-legged platform and a

pipeline. According to Upstream1, as many as seven individual and group contenders have registered

to pre- qualify for the GG tender, including the consortium of Meindo Elang Indah and Swiber

Offshore. Contract award is expected to be in 1Q13 with production startup in

1Q14.

Expecting more field development and production activities in Indonesia

With a declining rate of oil production in

Indonesia, we expect the country to increase oil field development and production activities, along

with corresponding increases in capital expenditure (Exhibit 1). This would benefit EPCIC

contractors such as Swiber Holdings. Indonesia’s oil lifting has decreased in the past few years,

and its government

has predicted that 2013 will be the year of lowest oil lifting (890,000-930,000bbl/day), but this

is expected to increase from 2014 onwards2.

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17-Oct 2012 Wednesday 3:27 PM (4210 days ago)

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OCBC Investment Research

Market Pulse

17 Oct 2012

Maintain HOLD

As of Aug 2012, Swiber’s order book stood at about US$1.6b and is expected to contribute

to earnings over the next two years. The

group is also bidding for more projects in the pipeline given the positive industry outlook.

However, in order for the stock to re-rate, we think the group has to demonstrate that it is able

to grow its operations by the generation of sustainable operating cash flows besides the support of

leverage. Given limited upside potential to our fair value estimate of

S$0.66, we maintain our HOLD rating. (Low

Pei Han)

1 “Pertamina throws open doors for GG bid round”. Upstream. 11 Oct 2012.

2 “Oil lifting to be the lowest in 2013”. Antaranews. 11 Jun 2012.

. . . . .

Keppel Land: Land acquisitions in

Singapore and China

Keppel Land (KPLD) put in a top bid of S$434.6m for a GLS (Government Land Sales) site at New Upper

Changi Road yesterday. The tender attracted 11 bids in total, and KPLD’s bid (translating to a land

cost of S$791 psf) was 7% above the second highest. The 99-year lease-hold site has an area of 343k

sq ft with a maximum GFA of

549k sq ft, and would likely be developed into a condominium project with ~550 units.

It is located close to the Tanah Merah MRT

station, and accessible by the ECP and PIE. We estimated breakeven and selling ASPs of

S$1,200 and S$1,300, respectively, for this

project. In addition, KPLD acquired its fifth residential site in Chengdu, China for RMB

680.4m (S$132m). This Chinese site, located in Xinjin County in Sichuan province, has an area of

28.7 hectares and is ~20km away

from the city center. We would speak with management further about these two

acquisitions and in the meantime, maintain

HOLD with our fair value estimate of S$3.44 under review. (Eli Lee)

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From: NetResearch Asia [mailto:postman@netresearch-asia.com] Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2012 9:14 AM To: NetResearch Asia 17 Oct 2012 Subject: Another firm close on Wall Street Pre-Market Open Commentary for 17 October 2012 ( CO. REG. NO. 199904258C ) DJIA: 13551.78 +127.55 Nasdaq Composite: 3101.17 +36.99 Good morning, fellow investors It was another strong day on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrials chalking up triple digit gains, thanks to a slew of better than expected earnings as well as news of management changes within Citigroup. On the earnings front, upside surprises came from across various sectors. The companies included Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Mattel and UnitedHealth. Outlook guidance was also more positive, which added to the sentiment. The other big news was that Citigroup's CEO Vikram Pandit was stepping down with immediate effect, a day after the group announced its results. He was replaced by Michael Corbat, previously CEO of Europe, Middle East and Africa. Citigroup's president and chief operating officer, John Havens, also resigned. Shares of Citigroup rose 1.6% following the news. Oil futures continued to rise, partly due to supply concerns. Crude for November delivery rose US 24 cents to US$92.09 per barrel. In Singapore today: Expect another trading bounce in Asian stock markets today after another firm Wall Street close. Better than expected earnings from some of the US companies will likely lift expectations of a flatlining, rather than weakening economy. The STI index closed 3.76 points up at 3046.81 points. For every stock that fell, 1.6 rose. Turnover was 1.33bil shares with a value of $1.19bil traded. GSH Corp headed the actives list, gaining 0.2 cent to 9.6 cents on 66.4m shares done. Transcu was up 0.1 cent or 5 per cent to 2.1 cents on 63.87m shares traded. Golden Agri continued to be heavily traded, closing unchanged at 64 cents on 46.5m shares done. K-Reit rose 5.5 cents at $1.245 on 4.36m units changing hands after reporting 3Q results that were in line with expectations. HPH Trust gained 0.5 cent at US80.5 cents following revelations of throughput grow at its Yantian port and Kwai Tsing terminals. 1. Chartzones - 17 October 2012 (premium) Technology Stocks [read the report] 2. Chartzones - 16 October 2012 (premium) Media, China Stocks and Technology Stocks [read the report] 3. Kevin's blog: Synear Food Holdings - a former high flying S chip receives delisting offer from its major shareholder at $0.186 cents........very disappointing but let's see what the IFA says !! (free) [read the report] NRA Team

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