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Dear members ,investors,n readers
Its come to a end of the first month of 2013. We are just around the corner for Chinese New Year. This 2013 Rally has an amazing run so far surpassing my expectations and fellow friends of mine as well in the financial sector. It'll be good to note that what goes up must come down. Now why do i Say this?
The reason of being a contrarion I have been quite bearish after the STI surpassed 3220, just a figure I had from my own analysis. I would like to highlight the recent major events that we had the pass month. Government regulations for real estate which was rather abrupt but after 1 week it feels like we might only see results of it in a year or two. Why you say firstly the equity markets lead the real estate market at least 6 mths. from personal observation. We see a huge influx of housing coming in. Do we sell developer shares now? I would like to say its good to have a wait and see approach. Hold some and release the rest if you are in the money. What about REITS? Well i think they are still decent to hold onto and collect div yield. its way better to have 4-7% of div yield than putting in my bank getting 1% or less each year. that's a huge diff of 3-6%. even if you had it in CPF and not invest your CPF you're losing say 1-3% more interest that you could have earned that of course if you hold onto your shares long term and just buy it over a certain period whether markets are up or down.
The other major news that came out was how the Government intends to have 6.9M people by 2030 so that's 17 yrs from now. lets take the current SG population including foreigners to be 5.3M that's 1.6M over 17 yrs. That gives you 94,000 new people we expect annually. Now with the new influx of homes coming up over the next few years say 50k homes a year you take half of the new 94K to be take housing so that 47k homes needed. But a word of caution though question is are this new 94k travelling frequently, working overseas or are they based here permanently for the long term? It begs to be seen but i'm veering toward a bias of housing to pull back to 15% range and hold steady.
My liking torward infrastructure companies like Yoma and Pan United are in view. I personalyl prefer Pan United () Anything to do with the building of the new MRT lines are still in focus. Oil & gas over the next 1-2 mths should be interesting with the West having awful winter conditions e.g. UK etc.
I have also like to note that the div yield focus on the Investment list has been shifted from 5% to 4%. (The reason being for most blue chip counters and a rough gauge comparing with other indexes e.g. HSI. the range was about 4%) The change to focus with a bigger range of companies that are giving 4% or higher was updated and highlighted.
I look foward in catching up with you all soon have a fantastic CHINESE NEW YEAR.HUAT AH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This message was edited by stand up n wake up on 01-Feb-2013 @ 11:54 AM
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01-Feb 2013 Friday
11:36 AM (4104 days ago)
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