MARKET WATCH 18th FEB - AsianBookie.Com Forums

18-Feb 2013 Monday 10:10 AM (4088 days ago)

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MARKET WATCH 18th FEB 2013

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STI 3,283 -7 -0.23% DOW 13,982 +9 +0.06% S&P 1,520 -1 -0.09% FTSE 6,328 +0 +0.01% DAX 7,594 -37 -0.49% GOLD 1,614 -22 -1.31% OIL 95.72 -1.58 -1.62% PRE-HK OPEN +8pts CREDIT SUISSE GLOBAL RISK APPETITE (EQUITY): 0.82 (14 Feb 2013) CREDIT SUISSE GLOBAL RISK APPETITE : 2.75 (14 Feb 2013) 18 Feb 2013 09:09 DJ China Minzhong* Target Raised To S$1.36 From S$1.16 By Maybank-Kim Eng 18 Feb 2013 08:50 DJ ST Engineering* Target Raised To S$4.50 From S$3.96 By Phillip Securities 18 Feb 2013 08:30 DJ Singapore Jan Non-Oil Exports* +0.5% On Year; +2.6% Expected 17 Feb 2013 16:17 DJ Singapore Govt*: Former PM Lee Kuan Yew Discharged from Hospital

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18-Feb 2013 Monday 10:17 AM (4088 days ago)

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THE GREAT ROTATION

 Financial Times offers a new perspective on the

subject (that has taken the investment world by

storm in recent weeks), examining the implications

of the peaking of commodity prices or the end of the

decade-long super-cycle of commodities, as supply

rises to meet demand.

 To be sure, the Commodity Research Bureau

Index of commodities has not shared in the rally

by equities: down 15% from a peak almost 2 years ago

after almost tripling in the decade before that.

 And work done by Longview Economics shows that

throughout the 20th century, stocks went sideways

when commodities were in their up cycle, and

made all their gains when commodities were

quiet. In short, the surge in material prices during the

past decade coincides with a lost decade for stocks.

This message was edited by stand up n wake up on 18-Feb-2013 @ 10:19 AM

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18-Feb 2013 Monday 10:20 AM (4088 days ago)

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Daily Review, 18 February 2013 Page 2 of 4

SGX-ST Member, SGX-DT (CNCM)

S-REITS / BUSINESS TRUSTS

 We have done a further update following release of

the Dec ’12 quarter results by CitySpring and

CapitaChina Retail. See attached.

 The sector has selectively, continued to do well, at

least relative to the general market.

 A few have even scaled new multi-year highs or

all time highs, eg Parkway Life (up 6 cents to

$2.44 on Friday, a new all time high), Fraser

Centrepoint Trust (FCT) also at a new high up 3 to

$2.04) after emerging from 4-month-old $1.94 - 2.02

range.

 It is interesting to note the FCT’s move coinciding with

the coming close of TCC Assets’ offer for F&N (5.30

pm today Feb 18), and the concurrent rise in share

price of Thai Beverage (new closing high of 58.5

cents on Thursday but down 2.5 cents on Friday).

 Note that outside Singapore, S-Reits / business trusts

are primarily focused on Australia (Keppel Reit,

CitySpring); Malaysia (StarHill), certainly not in

robust economies like Thailand, Indonesia, the

Philippines.

 And there is CapitaMalls Trust (CMT $2.18, up 3),

which appears poised to scale new high as has FCT,

once it breaks out of (also a 4-month-old) its $12.05-

2.20 range.

 We still like Cityspring, CMT, FCT, PLife.

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18-Feb 2013 Monday 10:21 AM (4088 days ago)

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Daily Review, 18 February 2013 Page 3 of 4

SGX-ST Member, SGX-DT (CNCM)

CHINA MINZHONG

S$1.02-CMIN.SI

 Indonesia listed PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk

(Indofood) which produce instant noodles, wheat

flour, baby food, food seasonings, coffee, cooking oil

and snacks is taking a 14.95% stake (representing

98mln new shares) in China Minzhong at 91.5 cents

each, representing a 10% discount to its last traded

price.

 Indofood’s sales for 2012 is estimated to be around

US$5.12bln about 10x bigger than China Minzhong’s

US$512mln and is expected to help China Minzhong

penetrate into new markets and distribution channels,

especially into Indonesia which Minzhong currently

does not have a presence.

 In a conference call this morning, management

disclosed that they will likely provide air-dried and

freeze dried vegetables to Indofood’s instant noodles

business segment which they had sold 15bln packets

last year. Another addressable market will be to

provide vegetables to Indofood’s baby food section.

 S$70mln of the new proceeds will be used to finance

capex for the expansion of their industrialized farming

of King Oyster Mushrooms in China while the other

S$15.2mln will be used for working capital purposes.

 After Indofood’s entry, GIC’s stake will be diluted

from 16.91% to 14.37% while Templeton’s stake will

be diluted from 13.05% to 11.09%.

 Indofood’s 14.95% stake would make them Minzhong’s

single largest shareholder.

 Without factoring in potential profit upside from the

new funds, the 14.95% dilution will see Minzhong’s

June 2013 PE increase from 3.6x to about 4.1x.

 But management said at this mornings conference call

that over the next few months, they expect positive

earnings per share announcements to help offset this

dilution.

 With the addition of Indofood as the largest

shareholder in Minzhong and one who is able to add

strategic business value and also provide market

confidence in this S-Chip, the 14.95% new share

dilution at a 10% discount is unlikely to be too much

of a concern.

 We maintain BUY.

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