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Forex Outlook 26.09.14 - AsianBookie.Com Forums

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Posted By Topic: Forex Outlook 26.09.14       - Views: 80
wushou
26-Sep 2014 Friday 11:41 AM (3502 days ago)               #1
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The US Dollar firmed against most major currencies on Thursday after a key Federal Reserve official warned that rate hikes may come sooner than markets have been expecting. That plus solid U.S. jobless claims numbers supported the US Dollar as well.

The U.S. Labor Department reported earlier that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending Sept. 20 rose by 12,000 to 293,000, up from the previous week's revised total of 281,000.Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 19,000 to 300,000 last week, and the better-than-expected number rose demand for the Dollar.

Separately, U.S. durable goods orders dropped by 18.2% in August, after an increase of 22.5% in July, whose figure was revised down from a previously estimated gain of 22.6%.Analysts had expected durable goods orders to decline by 18.0% last month, and the figure was close enough to expectations to give the US Dollar room to firm.

Core durable goods orders, which are stripped of volatile transportation items, rose 0.7% last month, in line with expectations, after falling 0.5% in July, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 0.7% drop.

The US Dollar saw added support after Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said the U.S. central bank may start raising benchmark interest rates around the spring of 2015, earlier than many market expectations.While the Fed has suggested its bond-buying program could close in October, uncertainty as to when rate hikes may begin in 2015 have concerned traders.

Meanwhile, EUR-USD came under pressure after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated on Thursday the central bank's commitment to act with more policy measures to boost inflation in the Euro zone."We stand ready to use additional unconventional instruments within our mandate, and alter the size or composition of our unconventional interventions should it become necessary to further address risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation," Draghi said.

A day earlier, Mario Draghi had already vowed to keep monetary policy "accommodative" for as long as needed, and to use every tool at the ECB's disposal to fight deflation. EUR-USD fell to as low as 1.26964 before recovering to close down 30 pips at 1.27499 in New York.

USD-JPY was down 0.36% at 108.746 after touching an intraday high at 109.363.GBP-USD too was down at 1.63150, down some 24 pips.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said earlier the time at which rate hikes kick in is "getting closer" but stressed a decision to tighten policy will depend on data and added the BOE does not have a pre-set course, words that cushioned the British Pound's losses against a firming US Dollar.

The New Zealand Dollar hit a one-year low after Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler ramped up his recent warnings about the level of the Kiwi.

"The Bank's analysis indicates that the real exchange rate is well above its sustainable level, and also above levels justified by short-term business cycle factors," Graeme Wheeler said in a statement that caught markets off-guard.

It also inflicted collateral damage on AUD-USD, which fell to 0.87901,its lowest since early February.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens made remarks on risk taking at a speech on Thursday and suggested that the Australian economy needed more push.

In the meanwhile, the Japanese Yen shrugged off remarks from Prime MinisterShinzo Abe.Japanese PM Abe reportedly said that the weaker Japanese Yen had both positive and negative impacts and that he wanted to carefully watch the impact of Yen weakness on regional economies and on small and mid-sized companies.

On Wednesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe voiced concerns over the economic impact of recent weakness in the Japanese Yen.

The US Dollar was up against the Canadian Australian and New Zealand Dollars, with USD-CAD up 50 pips at 1.1071, AUD-USD down 97 pips at 0.87864 and NZD-USD down 156 pips at 0.79187.

Global stock markets plunged on news Russia may consider a proposal allowing Moscow to seize foreign assets, which spooked investors across the globe.

A draft law, a response to Western sanctions slapped on the country for its alleged meddling in the Ukraine conflict, was sent to the Russian parliament Wednesday.

U.S. stocks ended with sharp losses on Thursday, with the S&P 500 suffering its biggest one-day decline since July, as Apple shares tumbled and the US Dollar rose to a four-year high.

The day's decline was broad base, with all ten primary S&P 500 sectors lower on the day and most down more than 1 percent. About 80 percent of stocks traded on both the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ ended lower with Apple leading the fall on concerns its new iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus may be prone to glitches, including bending hardware and problematic software upgrades, which sent the tech bellwether falling and brought broader indices down with it.

The losses were compounded by the continued strength of the US Dollar which rose 0.2 percent against a basket of major currencies. It is up 6.8 percent for the quarter, its biggest quarterly increase in six years.

Today, markets will move on U.S. gross domestic product and consumer-sentiment data as well as a report on German consumer climate.




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wushou
26-Sep 2014 Friday 11:47 AM (3502 days ago)            #2
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EUR-USD Medium to Short-Term Outlook

Repeated talks of more stimulus by ECB chief Mario Draghi over the past 48 hours and better than expected US jobless claims numbers last night sent EUR-USD to its lowest level since November 2012 with the breach of the 1.27 level. Over the medium-term, a break below 1.26602would shift focus to the 78.6% retracement of 1.20414 to 1.39929 at 1.24590, which is located not far from the 261.8% extension of 1.39929 to 1.35024 from 1.36998 at 1.24157. However, signs of buying interests are emerging and in the near-term, a technical rebound may occur from last night’s low to possibly to the supply pocket at 1.28632-1.29005 where the 61.8% retracement of 1.29943 to 1.26964 at 1.28805is located (refer to H1 chart).

TRADE IDEA #1

Bought at1.27063
Primary Target: : 1.29005
Secondary Target: 1.29729

Type : SELL
Size : 0.01m
Time : 12.09.2014 19:27
Open price 1.29743
Time : 23.09.2014 17:03
Close price : 1.27786
Realized +/_$195.70

Type : SELL
Size : 0.02m
Time : 12.09.2014 19:27
Open Price : 1.29743
Time : 25.09.2014 11:05
Close Price : 1.27045
Realized +/_ : $539.60

Type : BUY
Size : 0.03m
Time : 25.09.2014 11:06
Open Price : 1.27063
Time : 25.09.2014 23;59
Close Price : 1.27499
Unrealized +/_ : $130.80




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wushou
26-Sep 2014 Friday 11:51 AM (3502 days ago)            #3
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GBP-USD Medium to Short Term Outlook

Despite the seeming break of the rising trend-line seen in the H4 chart and yesterday’s fall to 1.62748, this market may have gone into a consolidation mode. In the long-term, technical outlook is decidedly bearish and a resumption of the fall from 1.71902is more likely with focus on the 61.8% retracement of 1.48118 to 1.71902 at 1.57203(refer to W1 chart). As such in the medium-term, last week’s high at 1.65231has become to mountain to climb. More likely, last night’s rebound from 1.62748may see an attempt to break above the rising trend-line and initial attempts may not be successful. The longer this rebound stretches out, the more likely the supply pocket at 1.63854-1.64122may cap this rise. Located within this price bracket lies the 50.0% retracement of 1.65231 to 1.62748 at 1.63990. Together, this area provides a decent place to re-position shorts. If the idea that this market is in consolidation in the near-term, a fall back into the demand pocket at 1.62386-1.62888is a good place to take up speculative long positions for a move to 1.63854-1.64122(refer to H1 chart).

TRADE IDEA #1

Buy between1.62386-1.62888
Stop-Loss: Exit on H4 close below 1.62386
Primary Target: 1.63990
Secondary Target: : 1.65000

TRADE IDEA #2

Sell between 1.63854-1.64122
Stop-Loss: Exit on H4 close above1.64122
Primary Target: 1.62888
Secondary Target: 1.60500

Type : SELL
Size : 0.03m
Time : 19.09.2014 11:01
Open Price : 1.64647
Time : 25.09.2014 23:59
Close Price : 1.63150
Realized +/_ : $449.10




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wushou
26-Sep 2014 Friday 11:55 AM (3502 days ago)            #4
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USD-JPY Short to Medium Outlook

In a sense the rise of USD-JPY has been too fast and a breather is to be expected. Despite last night’s better-than-expected US initial claims numbers, USD-JPY failed to propel higher beyond the week’s high of 109.448. The best it did was 109.363before US stock markets started to unravel (read cover story on US stock markets). Coupled with the extended nature of this rally from 101.500 and fears of Russia’s counter sanctions on western companies may further spook global equity markets. If so, this impact may lead to an abrupt turn-around of the Dollar rally. Regardless of how this geo-political an-eye-for-an-eye may turn out, technically a pullback towards 108.241is already unfolding. At the very least, this pullback should find support from within the demand pocket at 108.241-108.512 with the possibility of this fall extending momentarily to the 100.0% and 127.2% extension of 109.448 to 108.241 from 109.363 at 108.156 and 107.828respectively. But if this pullback gains momentum and take out this price bracket, a dip towards the Fibonacci cluster 107.410/107.412is highly likely (refer to H1 chart). Re-positioning longs between 108.241-108.512 is viable but doing so at 107.410/107.412makes enough more sense. Over the long-term, focus is on the 50.0% retracement of 147.680 to 75.563 at 111.637. This target level could well be just a temporary speed bump before traders take USD-JPY towardsthe 2006 high of 124.120over time (refer to the W1 chart).

TRADE IDEA #1

Buy between 108.241-108.512
Stop-Loss: Exit on H4 close below107.828
Primary Target: 109.118
Secondary Target: 111.500

TRADE IDEA #2

Buy at107.410/412
Stop-Loss: Exit on H4 close below 107.300
Primary Target: 109.118
Secondary Target: 111.500

Type : BUY
Size : 0.01m
Time : 23.09.2014 10:10
Open price : 108.562
Time : 24.09.2014
Close Price : 109.118
Realized : $50.95

Type : Buy
Size : 0.02m
Time : 23.09.2014 10:10
Open Price : 108.562
Time : 25.09.2014 17:44
Close Price : 108.562






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wushou
26-Sep 2014 Friday 11:59 AM (3502 days ago)            #5
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AUD-USD Medium to Short-Term Outlook

AUD-USD is practically collapsing as each day see this market melting down to fresh multi-week low. Within just a short span of 3 weeks, this market has practically wiped out the entire year’s gains from 0.86584. At this rate a challenge of the year’s low at 0.86584is very likely. With both the RBA and RBNZ both trying to talk down their respective currencies, this is going to be a race to the bottom. Instead of trying to pick bottoms,a better strategy is to sell on rebounds, if and when they occur. To this end, the price bracket between 0.89199-0.89398offers a decent area to do just that. Of course, there is a risk this market may never rebound appreciatively but to sell at current level is suicidal.

TRADE IDEA #1
Sell between0.89199-0.89398
Stop-Loss: Exit on H4 close above0.89398
Primary Target: 0.87722
Secondary Target: 0.87100

TRADE IDEA #2
Sell between 0.89848-0.89995
Stop-Loss: Exit on H4 close above 0.89995
Primary Target: 0.87722
Secondary Target: 0.87100

Type : BUY
Size : 0.03m
Time : 25.09.2014 03:48
Open price : 0.88506
Time : 25.09.2014 06:00
Close Price : 0.88292
Realized : -$64.20




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wushou
26-Sep 2014 Friday 12:05 PM (3502 days ago)            #6
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NZD-JPY Medium to Short-Term Outlook

Yesterday’s collapse in the NZD is how capitulation looks like. Earlier attempt to talk down the NZD did not have the lasting effort, so yesterday the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheelertry again. This time, traders took him seriously and unwound long NZD positions and as prices unravel throughout the day, almost all die-hard longs threw in the towel and abandoned long NZD positions en-mass. Technically, the break below the rising trend-line seen in the H4 chart gave an early clue that sellers are gaining the upper hand. In view of the changed sentiment, any rebound ought to be sold. The nearest place to do so is possibly in the price bracket between 86.843-87.012.A better place is the around the dynamic resistance at 87.550.

TRADE IDEA #1

Sell between86.843-87.012
Stop-Loss: Exit on H4 close above 87.012
Primary Target:86.000
Secondary Target:84.100

Type : BUY
Size : 0.03m
Time : 23.09.2014 03:38
Open Price : 88.124
Time : 23.09.2014 15:18
Close Price : 88.000
Realized +/- : -NZ$42.27

Type : BUY
Size : 0.01m
Time : 24.09.2014 17:07
Open Price : 87.589
Time : 24.09.2014 23:59
Close Price : 88.000
Realized +/- : NZ$46.71

Type : BUY
Size : 0.02m
Time : 24.09.2014 17:07
Open Price : 87.589
Time : 25.09.2014 09:01
Close Price : 87.104
Realized +/- : -NZ$111.36




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